***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.11.2018.-11.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 4.4 4.8 5.8 1.0 63.2 57.7 2.3 3.4 5.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 3.5 3.3 5.1 0.6 57.0 54.3 1.6 2.7 4.3 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 3.5 5.6 5.5 0.7 60.8 55.6 4.0 5.2 6.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 0.3 0.7 2.7 0.6 58.7 55.1 -1.2 -0.2 1.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 3.3 2.7 3.1 0.5 56.4 54.2 0.6 2.5 4.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 2.8 2.2 1.0 0.2 49.4 50.8 0.5 2.3 3.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 3.6 3.4 5.2 0.6 59.4 54.6 1.5 2.8 3.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 -4.3 -1.5 1.2 0.3 50.0 52.2 -3.3 -1.5 -0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 4.2 3.4 3.4 0.5 55.6 53.7 2.9 3.3 4.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 1.6 3.1 1.9 0.3 51.4 52.3 1.7 3.0 4.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 1.1 2.9 2.3 0.4 53.9 52.9 0.8 2.8 3.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 0.0 1.6 1.7 0.3 52.8 52.9 0.3 1.5 2.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 0.2 2.0 1.4 0.2 50.1 51.4 0.7 2.0 3.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 2.4 3.8 3.2 0.3 55.0 51.5 2.8 3.7 5.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 3.6 3.1 3.6 0.6 57.9 55.4 1.2 3.0 3.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 1.6 3.8 1.8 0.3 52.6 52.4 2.2 3.7 4.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 3.7 3.4 4.9 0.5 55.9 53.4 1.9 2.9 3.8 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 0.2 1.5 1.3 0.2 50.9 51.8 0.6 1.4 3.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 3.7 3.9 5.1 0.5 57.1 53.8 1.8 3.0 4.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 -2.8 -1.5 0.0 0.1 46.8 50.8 -3.0 -1.2 0.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 1.4 3.4 4.8 0.7 60.0 55.8 2.1 3.1 3.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 3.1 2.7 4.7 0.3 55.9 52.2 1.6 2.3 3.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 3.7 3.7 4.9 0.5 56.4 53.2 2.0 3.0 4.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 1.3 2.8 2.9 0.3 53.0 52.1 1.6 2.7 3.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 3.8 3.9 4.5 0.9 62.4 57.3 2.1 2.6 4.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 3.3 2.4 1.2 0.2 51.4 51.7 0.6 2.4 3.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 4.1 3.9 5.4 1.0 62.8 57.7 1.5 3.1 5.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 1.9 1.7 2.7 0.6 56.5 54.3 0.2 1.3 2.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 -0.7 0.7 0.9 0.2 49.9 51.1 -0.1 0.7 2.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 3.9 3.9 5.3 0.7 60.6 55.0 1.8 3.1 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------