***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.10.2018.-04.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 1.2 3.9 5.5 -1.1 37.0 38.8 3.5 4.6 5.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 1.5 2.8 5.0 -1.2 34.7 37.3 2.8 3.8 5.2 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 3.9 5.6 5.4 -1.2 35.6 37.1 5.2 6.6 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 -1.4 0.7 2.6 -1.2 32.9 36.5 0.7 1.8 2.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 0.9 1.7 3.6 -1.1 36.3 38.0 1.6 3.3 4.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 73 27 0 100 -0.5 0.2 0.9 -1.5 29.8 35.6 0.5 1.9 4.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 1.3 3.0 5.2 -1.0 36.2 39.3 2.9 4.1 5.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 73 27 0 100 -3.0 -1.7 1.0 -1.8 27.4 33.3 -1.1 0.1 0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 1.7 2.9 3.7 -1.0 36.1 38.0 2.5 4.7 6.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 70 30 0 100 1.7 2.7 1.9 -1.6 30.1 34.6 3.0 3.7 5.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 72 28 0 100 0.7 2.5 2.9 -1.2 35.9 37.4 2.1 3.4 4.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 72 28 0 100 -0.4 1.3 2.0 -1.4 32.7 36.2 1.3 2.3 4.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 -0.4 1.3 2.1 -1.2 35.9 38.7 1.2 2.2 3.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 70 30 0 100 2.7 3.8 3.2 -1.5 31.9 34.1 3.9 4.7 6.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 1.8 3.4 4.2 -0.7 37.2 40.5 3.0 4.1 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 1.8 2.9 2.4 -1.2 35.8 38.1 2.8 3.6 5.3 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 1.8 2.8 4.8 -1.2 33.0 37.0 2.8 4.6 5.7 30 Palic 37000G16 73 27 0 100 0.1 0.7 1.2 -1.8 27.9 33.4 1.2 1.8 4.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 1.4 3.2 5.0 -1.2 34.7 36.9 3.1 4.4 5.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 75 25 0 100 -3.0 -2.4 -0.2 -2.1 24.7 32.9 -1.5 -0.5 1.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 1.3 2.6 4.9 -1.0 37.3 38.9 2.3 4.3 6.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 1.2 2.1 4.9 -1.1 33.7 36.5 2.1 3.8 4.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 1.6 3.2 4.9 -1.2 34.9 36.2 3.2 4.3 5.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 1.4 2.5 3.1 -1.5 31.2 34.9 2.6 3.9 5.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 1.7 3.1 4.5 -1.2 34.5 37.8 2.9 4.3 6.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 0.8 1.5 1.5 -1.5 31.9 36.5 1.6 2.7 4.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 1.3 3.3 5.1 -1.0 37.2 39.6 3.0 4.3 6.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 0.4 2.0 3.0 -1.0 34.5 38.5 1.7 2.7 3.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 74 26 0 100 -0.7 0.4 0.4 -2.1 23.9 31.7 1.1 2.2 4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 1.6 3.4 5.3 -1.1 35.7 37.8 3.3 4.6 5.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------