***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.10.2018.-28.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 84 16 0 100 1.8 1.4 5.7 -2.5 17.7 19.3 2.6 5.2 7.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 85 15 0 100 1.2 1.1 5.5 -2.3 20.6 21.5 3.2 5.6 7.1 30 Becej 27400G00 85 15 0 100 4.1 3.6 6.0 -2.2 19.4 20.9 5.4 6.9 9.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 82 18 0 100 -0.6 -0.9 3.2 -2.3 18.3 20.8 0.4 1.9 3.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 91 9 0 100 1.3 0.7 4.0 -2.6 14.3 17.2 2.9 4.2 5.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 89 11 0 100 1.3 0.3 1.0 -2.9 12.1 14.8 2.7 3.6 5.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 84 16 0 100 1.5 1.5 5.6 -2.3 22.2 22.3 2.8 5.3 6.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 90 10 0 100 -2.7 -4.3 1.4 -2.9 10.6 14.5 -1.7 0.1 1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 86 14 0 100 1.6 1.0 4.4 -2.1 18.6 21.4 3.1 5.7 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 88 12 0 100 2.3 2.0 2.5 -2.6 13.8 17.5 3.3 4.4 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 90 10 0 100 1.8 1.5 3.7 -2.3 16.5 19.3 3.4 5.1 5.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 90 10 0 100 0.7 -0.2 2.2 -2.9 11.4 14.7 2.2 4.1 5.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 91 9 0 100 1.3 0.9 2.5 -2.6 15.5 17.2 3.1 5.0 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 79 21 0 100 2.8 2.7 4.5 -1.9 22.2 24.6 4.0 5.6 6.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 5.3 4.2 5.8 -0.9 35.6 35.7 4.1 4.8 5.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 90 10 0 100 2.1 1.7 2.9 -2.5 15.0 17.5 4.4 5.6 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 80 20 0 100 2.2 2.3 5.4 -2.2 23.2 23.6 3.1 5.3 6.6 30 Palic 37000G16 85 15 0 100 1.1 0.3 2.0 -2.8 13.6 17.5 2.5 3.7 5.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 84 16 0 100 1.9 1.6 5.7 -2.1 21.2 22.4 2.8 5.1 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 93 7 0 100 -1.6 -3.3 -0.2 -3.8 9.1 11.5 -1.0 1.1 2.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 81 19 0 100 1.8 1.5 5.5 -2.1 19.9 21.8 2.5 5.6 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 77 23 0 100 2.0 1.4 6.0 -1.8 25.4 26.9 2.1 4.9 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 82 18 0 100 2.5 2.4 5.7 -1.9 21.0 22.9 2.8 5.0 6.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 80 20 0 100 1.9 1.4 4.4 -2.0 20.0 23.3 3.0 4.3 6.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 87 13 0 100 2.6 1.8 4.8 -2.8 14.5 16.9 3.6 5.7 7.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 91 9 0 100 2.2 0.9 1.4 -3.3 8.0 12.3 3.3 4.9 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 86 14 0 100 1.6 0.9 5.2 -2.7 16.8 18.2 3.3 5.7 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 1.6 1.5 3.9 -1.8 24.5 26.8 2.4 3.6 4.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 88 12 0 100 0.2 -0.3 1.0 -3.1 11.3 15.0 1.0 2.1 5.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 84 16 0 100 1.7 1.2 5.8 -2.3 19.5 20.9 3.1 5.4 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------