***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.10.2012.-18.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 42.4 91.4 52.7 47.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 22.4 29.5 38.8 81.6 45.6 41.2 26.5 34.0 49.7 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 31.1 47.5 43.6 92.2 53.1 47.3 26.7 44.3 64.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 31.8 46.2 47.8 93.5 53.8 47.5 31.1 42.8 65.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 33.2 48.3 47.6 95.6 54.4 48.2 31.5 46.6 51.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 22.0 34.7 50.8 94.2 47.6 45.7 29.3 35.3 47.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 19.6 29.0 38.4 81.6 43.2 41.1 22.5 31.9 38.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 43.1 65.1 53.2 97.7 51.1 48.3 40.6 61.3 79.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 45.4 42.1 49.1 99.3 58.1 50.3 25.7 37.8 42.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 30.5 42.5 53.3 99.5 55.8 49.7 33.1 39.8 53.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 27.5 37.6 45.7 96.6 52.2 47.9 28.2 35.0 48.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 30.1 38.1 45.6 95.7 48.5 47.0 30.8 39.3 49.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 29.3 44.9 47.6 93.1 47.3 45.8 33.7 45.5 66.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 40.3 64.1 53.8 93.5 53.8 46.5 43.3 59.1 71.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 21.6 33.3 47.1 90.9 49.4 45.7 26.8 33.3 42.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 26.5 38.1 45.6 94.3 48.9 46.4 27.5 38.4 49.1 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 23.4 26.1 36.9 78.1 40.1 38.7 22.7 35.1 53.0 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 35.5 52.9 60.2 101.7 61.4 50.6 36.6 47.8 55.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 26.6 37.8 40.2 83.3 47.3 42.3 26.6 39.8 61.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 43.7 59.7 72.6 97.0 53.2 48.8 41.1 57.9 78.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 28.2 49.8 46.2 98.6 60.3 50.5 23.2 41.6 55.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 27.0 36.3 38.4 77.6 40.4 38.8 32.3 39.0 53.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 29.9 43.9 43.7 87.2 49.1 44.0 27.0 45.0 64.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 32.0 53.8 53.5 98.9 60.5 49.4 34.7 48.8 59.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 21.6 42.2 48.5 95.6 54.8 48.9 22.1 31.7 52.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 27.1 37.5 48.8 93.0 48.0 46.3 27.1 41.6 57.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 23.1 35.3 45.6 91.6 50.7 46.9 21.6 34.9 49.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 23.3 35.4 46.8 93.0 51.1 46.2 24.3 34.8 39.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 53.1 76.3 65.6 100.5 60.7 50.0 59.1 68.9 79.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 23.6 31.1 39.9 84.2 47.4 43.1 22.4 33.2 46.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------