***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.11.2012.-18.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 12.1 116.4 64.8 55.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 3.6 17.7 11.4 102.2 66.3 52.6 2.6 7.9 17.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 12.4 19.9 13.2 118.1 65.0 55.2 6.4 9.1 20.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 5.5 18.4 14.2 113.4 63.5 51.7 4.3 9.1 19.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 5.9 18.8 14.3 115.1 65.1 53.0 5.4 10.4 19.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 16.5 18.1 14.3 103.1 58.0 50.9 3.2 12.1 19.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 2.8 13.3 10.9 99.7 64.3 52.2 3.3 5.8 13.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 21.2 25.9 16.1 111.9 64.2 52.6 11.2 15.1 27.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 5.7 15.2 14.7 120.2 68.2 54.7 5.7 10.8 14.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 5.1 21.9 16.2 117.8 67.6 53.6 6.8 9.8 21.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 15.7 20.6 13.8 111.4 64.4 52.0 8.1 11.7 20.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 17.7 23.8 13.6 109.4 61.4 52.3 3.6 12.9 26.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 15.6 19.2 13.7 107.5 59.9 52.4 5.9 10.4 22.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 19.9 21.6 16.6 114.8 65.1 53.5 10.6 15.6 22.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 3.8 18.6 13.6 110.9 64.8 50.7 3.2 7.7 19.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 13.5 20.9 13.4 108.8 61.7 51.7 4.7 9.5 21.1 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 5.2 13.1 10.8 98.6 64.9 51.2 2.7 9.8 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 6.7 23.1 18.5 120.7 67.6 53.6 7.0 12.5 22.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 4.2 17.9 12.1 106.7 66.3 53.1 3.8 8.9 17.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 22.6 24.0 21.7 110.2 61.4 52.0 7.6 18.2 25.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 15.2 17.1 13.8 123.4 68.6 55.9 3.0 9.9 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 5.2 13.5 11.6 102.9 63.7 51.9 2.7 9.6 13.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 14.0 18.2 13.4 112.6 65.1 53.7 4.4 11.3 18.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 6.2 18.5 16.6 122.2 67.2 54.4 5.1 11.8 18.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 4.5 15.5 13.9 118.7 66.9 54.7 3.1 8.3 15.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 15.9 13.3 14.5 111.3 57.4 53.4 10.6 12.6 15.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 4.0 14.0 12.8 114.0 64.9 54.6 4.8 7.8 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 4.3 16.9 13.9 110.0 61.8 50.5 3.1 8.1 17.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 11.7 29.6 20.0 116.5 65.9 52.7 10.7 21.0 29.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 4.0 13.8 11.6 106.1 66.2 53.5 3.6 8.5 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------