***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.11.2012.-11.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 15.6 135.5 69.6 57.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 13.0 16.1 14.4 125.6 68.0 55.4 2.8 10.4 15.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 9.9 15.7 15.4 131.4 70.3 57.4 3.4 7.4 15.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 5.5 16.6 15.4 118.4 67.3 55.7 1.8 10.6 15.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 3.9 12.7 15.3 120.8 68.6 56.6 2.6 7.9 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.0 14.9 16.0 106.5 66.6 54.0 1.1 7.5 14.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 10.7 15.5 14.3 124.2 68.8 55.4 3.1 8.9 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 18.8 22.4 17.0 115.4 68.1 56.6 3.9 15.4 18.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.4 15.0 15.8 126.4 73.2 58.4 1.9 7.1 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 13.4 15.6 16.7 119.6 69.3 57.4 2.0 11.9 14.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 10.0 13.3 14.3 116.8 67.9 56.3 0.7 6.9 13.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.4 16.0 14.5 113.0 68.9 55.7 1.7 6.6 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 13.1 15.4 15.3 109.5 68.0 54.5 1.5 10.9 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 14.5 18.5 18.4 123.1 65.8 56.4 4.7 10.1 19.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 8.6 12.8 14.6 109.7 67.6 53.5 2.3 6.6 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 3.7 17.1 14.3 112.0 68.6 54.8 1.5 7.7 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 10.5 14.6 13.8 117.7 68.0 53.8 2.0 6.7 14.0 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 4.0 15.5 19.1 120.9 67.4 57.0 2.9 7.4 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 12.6 20.6 14.8 126.8 67.9 55.7 1.5 9.2 18.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 11.3 16.4 24.8 115.6 66.8 55.8 5.9 8.6 16.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 3.6 14.7 15.6 131.8 71.1 58.5 3.0 7.0 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 12.7 16.7 14.2 113.3 66.2 52.9 1.8 10.0 16.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 13.8 24.6 15.7 127.6 69.6 56.0 2.1 9.6 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 4.7 14.8 17.6 125.7 68.9 57.2 2.0 8.9 13.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 7.4 14.5 17.5 135.1 71.5 57.8 1.2 4.2 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 9.5 12.3 15.6 108.5 65.5 55.0 1.7 8.6 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 8.2 12.9 17.0 136.4 70.7 58.0 2.2 5.7 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 2.2 12.9 14.5 111.2 67.5 54.3 0.9 4.5 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 14.7 24.6 21.4 118.7 66.6 56.2 5.4 9.9 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 11.0 13.6 14.7 128.6 68.2 56.5 2.3 8.7 13.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------