***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.10.2012.-04.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 9999.0 0.0 10.6 92.8 63.3 49.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 1.4 4.3 9.9 77.8 53.5 45.4 1.0 3.3 9.0 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 2.4 13.0 10.8 90.7 62.7 50.0 0.8 5.3 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 2.4 10.4 11.9 106.8 66.9 49.3 2.3 4.8 9.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 2.1 10.8 11.9 106.8 65.8 52.2 0.5 4.5 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 4.4 3.1 12.9 100.9 57.3 48.4 0.5 2.7 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 1.5 4.6 10.1 81.5 53.7 45.6 0.5 3.8 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 3.1 8.8 13.4 107.6 62.8 52.7 1.4 6.7 9.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 7.4 11.2 12.4 107.9 65.5 53.5 0.7 5.3 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 2.8 11.6 13.4 108.4 64.1 53.4 0.6 6.1 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 7.2 8.8 11.4 110.5 65.0 53.1 0.3 5.5 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 2.5 10.6 11.6 110.3 64.2 52.8 0.7 5.0 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 6.6 5.7 12.1 103.5 60.0 50.6 0.2 4.7 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 4.9 14.4 13.0 87.3 60.0 48.8 3.0 10.5 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 0.8 5.8 12.1 104.2 67.6 44.8 0.5 2.0 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 3.9 6.0 11.5 107.9 62.8 51.0 0.1 2.2 6.2 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 1.8 5.1 9.8 77.6 53.8 43.9 0.9 3.8 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 3.7 11.6 15.3 104.2 63.2 53.1 2.5 7.5 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 2.0 6.5 10.0 77.4 55.3 45.8 1.1 4.4 11.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 9.5 7.0 18.8 99.7 56.7 50.3 1.0 5.1 13.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 8.7 9.6 11.5 105.9 65.5 53.7 0.8 7.2 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 1.6 7.8 10.2 76.3 55.8 43.7 0.7 3.5 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 1.8 6.7 10.6 79.9 55.8 46.8 1.9 4.2 8.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 4.3 13.6 13.2 96.9 63.3 51.7 1.7 9.2 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 2.1 7.3 11.9 96.8 62.9 49.4 2.2 4.8 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 5.6 3.6 12.4 100.3 56.0 50.0 0.4 2.9 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 2.7 9.7 11.3 90.5 59.6 48.2 0.6 5.8 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 1.2 6.7 11.9 109.3 66.9 48.3 0.4 2.7 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 6.0 17.0 16.8 101.4 60.2 51.8 3.3 12.5 19.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 1.6 4.7 10.1 81.4 57.7 46.7 1.0 3.9 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------