***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.10.2012.-28.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 75 25 0 100 9999.0 0.0 4.0 30.9 33.3 27.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 73 27 0 100 0.9 1.0 3.1 25.6 32.6 24.6 1.0 3.3 9.4 30 Becej 27400G00 72 28 0 100 1.6 2.4 4.3 34.2 35.7 26.6 1.9 4.9 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 74 26 0 100 1.4 3.4 6.3 43.8 41.8 29.4 1.4 4.5 13.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 79 21 0 100 2.2 3.7 6.2 45.5 38.6 29.1 2.5 5.7 10.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 1.0 3.3 7.6 62.2 50.8 36.5 0.5 3.2 8.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 73 27 0 100 1.1 1.6 3.2 26.0 32.0 25.6 1.7 4.1 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 72 28 0 100 3.1 3.2 6.7 52.1 38.8 31.6 2.8 9.0 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 78 22 0 100 1.7 4.0 6.1 46.6 39.7 29.3 2.1 6.0 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 75 25 0 100 2.0 3.6 6.9 51.8 38.2 31.3 2.7 6.4 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 75 25 0 100 1.2 3.0 6.2 50.3 41.8 31.6 2.3 4.6 8.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 73 27 0 100 1.1 2.1 5.9 49.9 40.0 31.3 1.1 4.1 7.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 74 26 0 100 1.2 2.8 6.5 51.1 42.2 33.4 1.9 4.4 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 72 28 0 100 2.7 3.5 5.7 43.7 34.8 27.4 2.8 8.1 13.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 1.4 2.7 6.7 46.3 45.5 31.5 1.5 4.0 8.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 71 29 0 100 1.0 2.6 6.3 50.6 43.2 32.0 2.1 3.2 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 79 21 0 100 0.5 0.6 2.6 21.5 30.4 23.0 1.1 2.3 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 72 28 0 100 2.1 3.1 7.3 54.6 39.4 32.4 1.4 7.3 9.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 71 29 0 100 1.4 1.1 3.4 27.3 33.2 24.5 1.1 4.2 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 73 27 0 100 1.5 3.3 7.4 49.9 37.4 30.2 2.0 5.3 10.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 77 23 0 100 1.5 3.1 5.2 40.3 37.5 28.6 1.8 5.5 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 79 21 0 100 1.2 1.2 2.5 20.0 27.9 21.6 2.6 5.6 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 2.0 1.6 4.0 31.7 33.3 24.3 1.6 6.4 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 71 29 0 100 1.9 3.6 6.1 47.3 37.9 29.5 2.4 6.2 10.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 78 22 0 100 0.7 0.9 5.2 38.0 37.0 29.0 0.5 2.6 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 1.3 3.6 6.3 49.7 43.4 32.3 1.2 4.2 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 75 25 0 100 0.6 1.0 4.5 33.0 33.3 28.1 1.0 2.3 4.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 70 30 0 100 1.3 3.6 6.5 47.5 44.9 30.8 2.0 4.3 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 72 28 0 100 3.0 6.9 7.5 55.5 38.9 33.0 2.3 8.3 16.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 1.3 0.6 3.4 27.5 33.3 24.9 0.5 4.3 6.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------