***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.10.2012.-18.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 9999.0 0.0 12.2 -0.8 29.4 37.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 11.1 11.5 12.2 -0.7 33.1 39.6 11.5 12.5 13.7 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 12.1 12.2 12.5 -0.8 31.4 39.0 12.4 13.1 14.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 5.7 6.1 10.4 -0.8 32.8 38.8 6.1 7.2 8.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 71 29 0 100 11.9 12.4 11.0 -0.9 28.5 37.9 12.6 13.5 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 11.5 12.0 9.8 -1.1 28.2 38.2 12.1 13.4 14.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 10.9 11.4 12.0 -0.8 31.9 38.1 11.4 12.3 13.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 4.1 4.6 10.0 -1.0 28.9 38.3 4.9 5.7 6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 12.5 12.6 11.6 -0.9 29.5 37.8 12.7 13.9 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 12.2 12.2 10.7 -1.1 28.7 37.5 12.5 13.2 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 12.2 12.4 10.9 -0.9 28.4 38.3 12.8 13.8 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 12.3 12.3 10.7 -0.9 29.7 39.5 12.5 13.8 15.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 12.6 12.6 10.5 -0.9 30.5 40.0 12.7 14.2 15.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 12.2 12.4 11.7 -1.0 31.1 38.0 12.6 13.4 14.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 11.1 11.6 10.9 -0.5 35.2 41.9 11.5 12.1 12.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 12.6 13.3 10.7 -0.9 29.0 39.0 13.5 14.3 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 10.4 10.8 11.8 -0.8 30.6 37.8 11.0 11.8 13.0 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 11.4 11.5 10.3 -1.2 29.5 36.6 11.5 12.5 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 11.5 11.8 12.5 -0.6 34.5 40.7 11.6 12.8 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 8.9 9.4 8.6 -1.2 28.7 37.9 9.6 10.9 12.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 12.2 12.1 12.0 -0.9 29.2 37.3 12.4 13.4 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 11.2 11.3 12.0 -0.7 30.8 39.1 11.5 12.4 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 11.7 11.9 12.6 -0.6 36.7 41.4 11.7 12.8 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 12.7 12.9 11.6 -1.0 31.4 37.6 12.9 13.9 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 71 29 0 100 11.0 11.3 10.9 -0.9 29.3 37.4 11.4 12.5 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 12.1 12.5 10.3 -0.8 35.2 41.7 12.4 13.7 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 11.6 12.0 11.6 -0.9 29.2 36.9 12.2 13.0 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 11.2 11.8 10.7 -0.8 32.3 39.7 11.8 12.7 13.3 29 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 8.3 9.0 9.6 -1.2 30.8 37.3 9.1 10.1 11.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 11.2 11.7 12.4 -0.7 33.8 39.6 11.5 12.5 14.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------