***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.11.2012.-18.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 9999.0 0.0 9.6 -0.3 52.1 48.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 7.4 10.1 9.5 0.0 53.7 49.8 6.7 9.9 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 8.3 11.7 9.8 -0.2 51.8 48.8 7.8 11.6 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 2.3 5.7 7.7 -0.3 53.3 47.4 4.1 5.5 7.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 8.4 11.5 8.2 -0.4 51.3 47.2 10.5 11.4 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 8.3 11.2 7.3 -0.3 48.8 47.9 9.9 11.2 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 7.1 10.1 9.4 -0.1 51.2 49.4 6.8 10.1 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 1.1 3.5 7.3 -0.5 44.8 46.7 2.5 3.7 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 8.4 11.5 8.8 -0.4 50.6 47.3 9.8 11.4 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 7.9 10.6 8.0 -0.5 46.2 46.7 9.7 11.0 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 8.5 11.4 8.1 -0.3 46.9 47.3 10.7 11.7 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 8.2 11.0 7.9 -0.4 45.0 47.2 10.7 11.3 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 8.8 11.3 7.7 -0.4 45.0 47.7 10.5 12.0 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 8.4 11.2 9.1 -0.2 49.4 48.5 7.8 11.3 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 7.7 8.9 7.9 -0.2 51.3 48.5 7.8 8.8 9.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 9.1 12.1 7.9 -0.3 48.8 47.6 11.1 12.1 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 7.1 9.9 9.2 0.0 52.0 49.8 6.6 9.5 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 7.6 9.9 7.6 -0.5 44.7 46.5 8.6 10.1 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 7.6 10.9 9.8 0.0 55.0 50.1 6.7 10.3 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 4.9 7.9 5.8 -0.6 44.2 46.0 6.8 8.6 9.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 8.2 11.5 9.3 -0.3 52.1 47.4 9.6 11.2 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 7.5 10.5 9.4 0.0 54.4 50.0 6.7 10.2 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 7.7 10.8 9.9 0.0 54.6 50.0 7.0 10.3 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 8.9 11.6 8.9 -0.3 47.4 47.6 8.3 11.8 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 7.4 10.5 8.1 -0.4 51.4 47.0 8.8 10.3 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 9.0 10.2 7.6 -0.3 43.6 47.8 9.8 11.2 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 8.2 11.3 8.9 -0.3 50.0 47.7 8.9 11.3 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 8.1 9.3 7.9 -0.2 52.9 48.0 8.7 9.3 10.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 4.5 7.1 6.9 -0.6 43.6 46.4 6.5 7.2 9.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 7.3 10.3 9.7 -0.1 54.1 49.5 6.9 10.1 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------