***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.11.2012.-11.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 9999.0 0.0 11.5 -0.8 36.7 43.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 9.2 10.9 11.3 -0.8 37.0 43.3 10.6 11.5 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 10.1 11.9 11.7 -0.7 39.0 44.5 11.1 12.6 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 3.7 5.7 9.8 -0.7 41.8 44.5 4.7 6.5 7.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 10.3 11.7 10.3 -0.8 41.8 44.7 11.1 12.5 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 9.5 11.0 9.4 -0.8 44.0 45.5 9.7 11.8 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 9.2 10.3 11.1 -0.9 35.4 42.7 10.2 11.7 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 2.1 4.5 9.5 -0.9 41.4 44.9 3.3 5.6 6.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 10.7 12.1 10.9 -0.8 39.8 45.1 11.3 13.2 14.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 10.5 11.2 10.1 -0.9 40.1 44.8 10.7 12.5 13.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 10.5 11.8 10.3 -0.7 42.4 45.7 11.0 12.6 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 10.2 11.2 10.1 -0.8 42.5 45.8 10.4 12.6 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 10.3 11.3 9.9 -0.8 43.6 45.8 10.6 12.2 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 10.4 11.5 10.9 -1.0 37.2 43.1 11.3 12.6 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 10.2 11.3 10.1 -0.4 42.4 45.7 10.5 11.5 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 10.9 12.5 10.0 -0.7 43.4 45.9 11.2 13.1 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 9.1 10.2 10.8 -1.0 35.6 41.7 10.2 10.9 12.5 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 8.7 10.0 9.6 -1.1 38.1 43.5 9.5 11.2 13.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 9.1 11.4 11.6 -0.7 38.0 43.9 11.0 11.8 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 6.7 8.8 7.7 -1.2 36.7 42.8 7.9 9.6 12.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 10.2 11.6 11.3 -0.8 40.1 44.6 11.0 12.8 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 8.9 10.7 11.0 -0.9 36.2 42.2 10.6 11.4 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 9.5 11.3 11.7 -0.7 39.2 44.3 10.9 11.7 13.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 10.3 12.4 10.9 -0.9 38.5 43.8 12.0 13.0 14.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 9.8 11.0 10.2 -0.8 39.6 43.3 10.2 11.9 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 10.5 11.2 9.7 -0.8 42.5 45.3 10.9 12.2 14.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 10.0 10.8 10.8 -0.9 36.9 43.2 10.6 12.5 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 9.7 11.8 10.1 -0.6 42.9 45.7 10.3 11.8 12.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 5.5 7.1 8.8 -1.2 37.0 42.9 6.6 8.6 11.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 9.3 10.9 11.5 -0.8 37.4 43.8 10.1 11.9 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------