***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.10.2012.-04.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 74 26 0 100 9999.0 0.0 12.2 -2.4 22.4 29.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 73 27 0 100 10.8 10.8 12.3 -2.1 23.5 30.5 12.7 13.7 15.4 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 11.3 11.1 12.4 -2.3 23.3 30.6 12.2 14.9 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 5.5 5.5 10.4 -2.6 23.3 30.6 6.7 9.4 11.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 11.6 11.0 10.8 -2.6 22.4 30.3 12.8 14.9 16.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 11.2 10.8 9.8 -2.7 19.8 31.7 13.3 14.7 15.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 77 23 0 100 10.1 10.5 12.0 -2.2 22.2 29.2 12.5 13.6 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 4.4 5.5 10.2 -2.4 21.8 32.5 6.2 7.5 8.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 11.7 11.2 11.4 -2.6 21.8 30.2 12.4 15.1 17.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 11.5 10.7 10.7 -2.6 22.0 31.2 12.1 14.5 17.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 11.9 11.2 10.8 -2.5 22.5 31.1 12.6 15.2 17.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 11.4 10.8 10.8 -2.4 21.4 32.2 12.7 14.7 17.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 12.0 11.6 10.4 -2.5 19.5 31.6 13.2 15.0 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 11.9 10.4 11.7 -2.4 24.0 31.6 10.9 15.4 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 11.4 11.7 10.6 -2.3 22.5 31.8 12.9 14.4 15.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 12.5 12.6 10.5 -2.6 21.2 31.0 13.8 15.6 17.6 30 Nis 06700G01 75 25 0 100 10.2 10.0 11.8 -2.1 21.8 29.6 12.1 13.0 14.5 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 10.8 9.5 10.4 -2.5 23.9 31.6 11.3 13.8 16.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 11.2 10.9 12.5 -2.1 23.9 31.4 12.3 14.1 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 9.0 7.7 8.8 -2.2 23.5 34.4 10.4 12.2 14.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 11.3 11.3 11.9 -2.6 22.4 29.9 12.4 15.2 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 73 27 0 100 10.6 10.0 12.1 -2.1 22.8 30.4 12.2 13.6 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 11.3 10.5 12.6 -2.1 22.5 32.1 11.5 14.2 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 11.7 11.0 11.6 -2.5 23.3 31.2 12.1 14.9 17.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 10.5 9.3 10.8 -2.5 20.7 29.7 12.9 13.9 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 11.9 10.7 10.3 -2.4 19.8 31.7 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 76 24 0 100 11.0 10.0 11.5 -2.5 20.2 29.0 12.8 14.7 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 70 30 0 100 11.7 11.6 10.6 -2.6 22.6 31.1 12.3 14.8 16.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 8.1 7.0 9.8 -2.4 25.0 33.0 8.7 11.4 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 73 27 0 100 10.8 11.1 12.4 -2.2 23.4 30.4 12.5 14.3 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------