***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.10.2012.-18.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 9999.0 0.0 4.8 -1.4 26.5 29.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 2.1 2.3 4.5 -1.3 25.2 30.4 2.5 3.3 4.9 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 4.6 4.6 4.8 -1.1 27.8 32.3 4.7 5.2 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 -0.6 -0.6 2.7 -1.1 27.8 32.0 -0.4 0.2 1.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 2.1 1.9 2.9 -1.3 24.5 30.5 2.1 2.7 3.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 1.5 1.8 1.5 -0.8 34.8 36.9 1.7 2.4 2.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 2.3 2.2 4.4 -1.4 23.4 28.8 2.7 3.3 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 -2.6 -2.3 1.9 -1.1 25.8 33.5 -2.0 -1.1 -0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 2.9 2.9 3.6 -1.2 24.5 31.0 3.3 3.4 5.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 2.6 2.7 2.5 -1.2 24.0 31.8 2.9 3.4 4.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 2.2 2.3 2.8 -1.1 27.1 33.7 2.3 3.0 4.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 1.4 1.5 2.5 -1.0 30.4 34.8 1.6 2.3 3.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 1.5 2.0 2.1 -1.0 29.7 34.1 2.1 2.5 3.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 3.4 3.2 3.6 -1.1 27.3 33.7 3.3 4.1 5.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 2.7 2.4 3.3 -0.9 30.3 34.0 2.6 3.5 3.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 3.0 2.9 2.4 -1.0 29.4 34.2 3.2 3.7 4.6 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 2.4 2.1 4.2 -1.4 21.3 27.8 2.9 3.3 4.7 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 1.3 1.3 1.8 -1.4 23.4 31.0 1.7 2.1 2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 2.6 2.6 4.7 -1.1 27.4 32.4 2.8 3.3 5.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 69 31 0 100 -1.8 -2.0 0.6 -1.3 22.5 32.4 -1.0 -0.4 0.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 2.8 2.7 4.4 -1.3 26.0 30.6 2.8 3.2 4.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 2.0 1.9 4.4 -1.2 24.3 30.3 2.2 2.9 4.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 2.8 2.7 4.7 -0.9 29.8 34.9 2.8 3.3 4.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 2.6 2.6 3.4 -1.1 27.7 33.3 2.6 3.2 3.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 3.1 3.1 3.5 -1.4 23.8 29.4 3.2 3.6 4.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 2.0 2.1 2.2 -1.0 28.7 35.1 2.5 3.0 3.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 2.6 3.0 4.1 -1.4 24.0 28.7 3.1 3.4 5.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 1.0 1.2 2.9 -1.0 29.6 34.0 1.4 1.9 2.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 69 31 0 100 0.3 0.4 1.4 -1.3 25.3 32.7 0.8 1.6 3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 2.7 2.7 4.7 -1.2 26.8 30.9 3.0 3.6 5.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------