***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.11.2012.-11.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 0.0 4.5 -1.3 36.9 38.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 1.0 1.7 4.1 -1.2 36.9 39.2 1.6 2.7 4.3 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 3.5 4.5 4.3 -1.1 38.1 39.8 4.0 5.2 6.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 -2.4 -1.2 2.2 -1.2 32.5 38.4 -1.2 -0.2 1.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 0.7 1.3 2.5 -1.2 35.7 39.4 0.6 2.5 4.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 0.2 1.3 1.2 -0.8 37.6 43.7 0.5 2.3 3.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 1.0 1.6 4.1 -1.2 36.8 38.6 1.5 2.8 3.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 -4.5 -3.4 1.6 -1.1 32.6 42.2 -3.3 -1.5 -0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 1.7 3.3 3.2 -1.2 36.8 39.9 2.9 3.3 4.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 1.5 1.9 2.1 -1.2 35.2 40.8 1.7 3.0 4.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 1.0 2.0 2.4 -1.0 37.7 41.8 0.8 2.8 3.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 -0.2 0.4 2.2 -0.9 35.1 42.6 0.3 1.5 2.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 0.0 1.3 1.8 -0.9 37.3 42.5 0.7 2.0 3.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 2.1 3.1 3.2 -0.9 38.5 41.5 2.8 3.7 5.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 1.6 1.2 2.7 -0.9 33.7 40.2 1.2 3.0 3.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 1.6 2.4 2.0 -0.9 37.8 42.2 2.2 3.7 4.4 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 1.4 2.4 3.8 -1.2 37.0 38.5 1.9 2.9 3.8 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 0.1 0.8 1.6 -1.2 34.7 41.1 0.6 1.4 3.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 1.3 2.2 4.2 -1.1 37.5 40.1 1.8 3.0 4.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 -2.9 -3.0 0.3 -1.2 31.9 42.5 -3.0 -1.2 0.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 3.9 2.7 3.9 -1.2 36.3 39.3 2.1 3.1 3.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 0.9 1.8 3.9 -1.1 36.8 39.7 1.6 2.3 3.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 1.5 2.2 4.1 -0.9 38.2 41.1 2.0 3.0 4.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 1.3 2.4 3.0 -1.0 37.4 41.1 1.6 2.7 3.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 1.1 2.1 3.0 -1.3 33.2 37.7 2.1 2.6 4.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 0.6 1.4 2.1 -0.8 37.6 43.3 0.6 2.4 3.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 1.4 1.8 3.8 -1.3 35.5 38.3 1.5 3.1 5.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 -0.5 0.3 2.5 -0.9 34.2 40.5 0.2 1.3 2.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 -0.8 0.0 1.2 -1.1 35.2 42.0 -0.1 0.7 2.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 1.5 2.1 4.3 -1.2 36.9 39.4 1.8 3.1 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------