***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.10.2012.-04.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 85 15 0 100 9999.0 0.0 4.4 -3.3 18.6 21.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 88 12 0 100 0.3 -0.1 4.2 -3.1 17.3 22.1 2.8 3.8 5.2 30 Becej 27400G00 87 13 0 100 2.9 2.8 4.3 -3.0 18.3 23.0 5.2 6.6 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 81 19 0 100 -2.0 -3.2 2.0 -3.1 14.4 22.2 0.7 1.8 2.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 82 18 0 100 0.5 0.1 2.3 -3.2 17.3 22.4 1.6 3.3 4.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 70 30 0 100 -0.4 -1.1 0.9 -2.5 18.7 27.5 0.5 1.9 4.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 88 12 0 100 -0.1 -0.7 4.1 -3.3 16.3 21.3 2.9 4.1 5.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 80 20 0 100 -3.3 -3.1 1.5 -2.8 19.4 24.6 -1.1 0.1 0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 88 12 0 100 0.7 0.6 3.0 -3.2 18.6 22.6 2.5 4.7 6.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 83 17 0 100 1.3 1.2 1.9 -3.1 19.9 23.4 3.0 3.7 5.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 80 20 0 100 0.4 -0.3 2.2 -2.9 17.3 24.0 2.1 3.4 4.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 78 22 0 100 -0.6 -1.1 2.1 -2.6 19.3 25.5 1.3 2.3 4.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 72 28 0 100 -0.6 -1.0 1.6 -2.6 21.0 26.8 1.2 2.2 3.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 86 14 0 100 2.2 2.3 3.2 -2.8 19.6 24.7 3.9 4.7 6.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 80 20 0 100 0.9 0.0 2.5 -2.7 15.9 24.4 3.0 4.1 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 77 23 0 100 1.6 1.0 1.8 -2.7 17.9 25.1 2.8 3.6 5.3 30 Nis 06700G01 88 12 0 100 0.2 -0.4 3.8 -3.4 15.7 20.7 2.8 4.6 5.7 30 Palic 37000G16 84 16 0 100 -0.2 0.3 1.5 -3.0 20.7 23.7 1.2 1.8 4.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 87 13 0 100 0.1 -0.2 4.3 -3.0 18.0 23.0 3.1 4.4 5.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 82 18 0 100 -3.2 -2.6 0.4 -2.9 20.5 24.8 -1.5 -0.5 1.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 88 12 0 100 0.3 -0.1 3.7 -3.2 18.3 22.2 2.3 4.3 6.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 90 10 0 100 -0.2 -0.7 4.0 -3.2 16.1 21.7 2.1 3.8 4.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 86 14 0 100 0.7 0.3 4.3 -2.7 18.6 24.4 3.2 4.3 5.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 86 14 0 100 0.7 0.8 3.0 -2.9 20.0 24.1 2.6 3.9 5.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 86 14 0 100 0.9 0.4 2.8 -3.3 16.1 21.2 2.9 4.3 6.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 74 26 0 100 0.7 0.1 1.9 -2.4 16.9 27.4 1.6 2.7 4.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 87 13 0 100 0.1 -0.5 3.6 -3.3 17.4 21.5 3.0 4.3 6.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 79 21 0 100 -0.3 -1.1 2.2 -2.9 15.1 24.0 1.7 2.7 3.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 83 17 0 100 -1.0 -1.0 1.2 -2.9 20.1 25.1 1.1 2.2 4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 87 13 0 100 0.2 -0.2 4.3 -3.1 17.5 22.5 3.3 4.6 5.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------