***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.10.2012.-28.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 9999.0 0.0 7.3 -0.5 41.1 42.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 5.9 4.2 7.0 -0.4 39.3 43.2 3.2 5.6 7.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 7.4 6.4 7.6 0.0 44.6 48.0 5.4 6.9 9.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 87 13 100 2.3 2.0 5.8 0.6 54.1 55.2 0.4 1.9 3.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 88 12 100 4.5 4.0 5.9 -0.1 45.3 47.3 2.9 4.2 5.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 90 10 100 3.9 3.9 4.3 0.5 53.1 53.5 2.7 3.6 5.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 5.8 4.3 6.9 -0.6 39.6 41.5 2.8 5.3 6.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 89 11 100 0.4 -0.7 4.5 0.0 43.9 45.7 -1.7 0.1 1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 91 9 100 5.9 5.0 6.3 -0.1 45.3 46.9 3.1 5.7 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 91 9 100 4.7 4.0 5.2 0.0 44.6 46.0 3.3 4.4 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 92 8 100 5.2 5.0 5.7 0.2 48.3 49.2 3.4 5.1 5.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 90 10 100 4.3 3.7 5.1 0.1 47.7 48.1 2.2 4.1 5.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 91 9 100 5.1 4.6 4.7 0.0 46.1 45.8 3.1 5.0 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 6.1 5.5 6.4 0.1 48.5 48.4 4.0 5.6 6.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 90 10 100 5.0 5.1 6.7 0.5 56.0 55.7 4.1 4.8 5.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 91 9 100 5.8 5.6 5.2 0.1 49.8 48.7 4.4 5.6 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 5.8 3.9 6.5 -0.6 37.6 40.4 3.1 5.3 6.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 4.3 2.8 4.2 -0.4 38.6 41.4 2.5 3.7 5.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 5.7 4.5 7.3 0.0 43.6 47.3 2.8 5.1 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 1.5 -0.2 2.7 -0.5 37.3 39.1 -1.0 1.1 2.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 87 13 100 5.9 5.1 7.2 -0.1 45.4 46.8 2.5 5.6 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 5.4 3.9 7.0 -0.2 42.7 45.8 2.1 4.9 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 5.4 5.3 7.6 0.4 51.3 52.7 2.8 5.0 6.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 4.8 4.0 6.2 0.1 45.8 48.4 3.0 4.3 6.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 6.0 5.1 6.7 -0.2 44.5 46.9 3.6 5.7 7.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 5.2 3.9 4.3 -0.2 44.5 44.1 3.3 4.9 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 6.2 4.4 6.6 -0.6 39.7 42.0 3.3 5.7 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 89 11 100 3.8 3.9 6.2 0.6 54.2 55.2 2.4 3.6 4.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 2.9 1.9 3.7 -0.2 42.2 43.0 1.0 2.1 5.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 5.9 5.0 7.3 -0.3 40.9 44.6 3.1 5.4 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------