***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.10.2019.-17.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 25.8 42.5 47.4 96.2 51.6 47.3 26.2 37.4 50.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 24.0 39.3 42.0 93.6 52.7 45.8 26.3 35.1 51.9 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 32.5 46.6 46.0 96.1 52.9 47.7 29.4 45.4 63.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 31.1 39.6 47.2 85.3 45.1 43.3 36.0 41.4 62.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 48.2 41.0 45.4 86.0 47.2 43.3 31.3 43.8 51.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 43.5 35.1 42.6 83.8 43.8 42.4 30.9 39.8 48.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 40.9 33.1 41.8 92.5 51.2 45.0 22.1 32.9 41.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 64.8 56.5 49.3 87.6 47.8 44.4 40.4 58.0 74.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 42.8 35.5 46.6 87.6 47.5 44.0 27.9 36.2 45.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 47.3 40.2 49.1 87.7 47.5 44.2 32.6 40.9 48.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 40.3 29.6 44.0 84.9 46.3 42.9 26.3 33.2 47.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 46.8 38.9 45.0 87.8 47.9 44.7 26.2 39.3 56.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 30.8 44.4 46.5 87.2 46.1 44.1 36.8 46.3 53.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 66.3 62.8 55.7 96.8 52.0 48.5 44.7 56.5 74.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 22.3 31.0 45.9 84.9 47.0 44.4 23.5 31.4 50.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 41.6 33.2 44.1 85.7 45.7 43.2 29.1 33.9 39.0 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 23.8 33.4 41.2 90.7 49.0 43.3 23.6 33.7 53.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 55.5 49.0 52.9 91.5 49.8 45.7 35.1 49.3 61.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 29.1 42.9 42.8 94.1 53.2 46.6 28.2 41.7 56.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 61.3 54.0 64.3 92.6 50.6 46.6 38.9 54.0 80.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 28.9 43.7 45.9 90.2 48.9 44.9 29.6 44.2 57.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 28.8 38.7 43.3 91.0 48.4 44.1 32.3 39.9 53.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 30.6 49.0 45.4 95.7 54.1 47.9 28.8 41.8 64.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 38.4 55.9 50.6 93.9 51.7 47.0 32.2 54.7 62.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 26.1 37.5 49.2 88.8 48.4 44.3 21.4 39.5 56.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 46.6 39.2 48.8 91.8 47.8 45.7 30.3 42.8 54.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 24.2 38.2 47.9 91.7 49.2 45.3 23.7 39.8 50.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 26.0 30.1 43.6 84.3 45.1 43.2 21.7 34.8 50.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 71.2 64.0 56.8 93.9 51.2 47.2 59.4 63.3 83.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 25.0 39.8 43.8 96.0 54.1 47.6 22.8 36.8 49.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------