***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.11.2019.-17.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 10.7 11.6 16.0 124.1 66.9 50.7 5.5 8.2 11.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 4.8 12.6 11.9 102.3 61.5 45.4 3.4 9.7 16.8 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 5.7 18.2 15.4 123.4 68.4 51.0 5.7 10.8 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 13.8 18.4 17.7 125.6 66.4 51.5 5.1 9.8 18.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 6.5 20.7 16.7 123.6 66.4 51.2 5.5 11.6 20.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 6.5 19.7 15.6 116.6 66.5 52.7 4.3 12.8 19.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 4.9 13.0 12.1 107.0 63.9 46.7 4.2 9.7 13.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 21.2 22.6 17.1 114.1 64.4 51.6 10.2 18.4 23.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 5.9 16.6 17.0 122.3 67.1 51.2 3.7 11.6 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 6.2 20.7 17.3 118.5 65.4 51.5 6.1 11.9 20.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 6.2 19.3 15.7 116.7 67.0 51.2 6.3 11.1 18.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 16.8 26.8 15.5 113.5 66.2 51.7 3.4 11.2 26.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 14.1 19.7 16.2 116.8 65.3 52.4 7.2 10.1 20.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 8.9 22.5 17.0 111.7 66.0 49.3 6.6 15.6 22.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 12.0 20.6 17.5 122.0 66.9 51.7 3.5 7.3 20.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 5.2 19.7 15.8 118.0 66.1 52.1 5.6 9.4 19.7 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 4.8 13.6 10.9 95.9 60.3 44.8 4.8 9.5 14.1 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 5.3 22.6 17.9 120.4 66.2 52.3 6.3 10.1 22.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 6.3 16.3 12.2 101.4 61.7 45.8 3.8 11.9 18.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 20.0 23.4 21.4 114.4 62.0 52.0 7.7 16.4 25.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 5.5 16.8 16.6 128.1 69.0 51.4 4.2 10.0 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 5.0 12.5 10.7 87.3 56.9 44.2 2.5 9.6 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 5.2 16.4 13.2 104.1 63.0 47.2 5.2 9.9 19.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 5.8 18.4 16.7 120.6 68.3 51.1 5.1 12.3 18.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 4.8 15.2 17.4 123.4 66.4 50.5 3.1 7.8 15.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 6.6 18.9 16.6 117.9 63.9 52.6 10.5 13.8 20.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 11.1 12.2 16.1 119.9 66.1 49.9 4.5 8.3 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 4.0 19.7 16.7 122.7 67.1 51.9 3.6 7.4 19.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 23.2 28.7 18.8 118.9 65.2 52.6 12.1 16.5 29.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 5.7 15.0 13.4 112.2 65.1 48.2 4.4 11.0 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------