***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.11.2019.-10.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 11.7 13.3 16.0 129.9 67.8 57.3 5.3 9.9 12.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 10.0 15.5 14.2 125.9 66.5 57.3 3.5 6.9 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 11.8 15.1 15.7 127.6 67.0 57.2 3.8 9.9 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 10.6 13.8 14.6 101.4 61.2 53.0 1.6 5.8 17.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 10.7 9.9 14.3 103.7 60.1 54.0 2.2 8.1 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 9.6 8.3 11.8 84.8 55.9 49.7 1.3 6.9 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 10.4 15.3 14.1 123.2 66.2 56.4 2.3 8.6 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 14.3 23.7 15.5 110.2 64.0 56.9 5.8 10.2 25.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 9.1 13.4 15.4 108.2 60.6 54.2 1.3 6.9 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 12.9 16.4 15.9 109.7 63.6 55.6 2.0 11.0 17.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 11.1 13.1 13.3 101.9 61.6 54.3 1.4 8.9 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 11.4 13.6 13.5 104.6 63.6 55.5 3.4 8.3 16.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 13.5 13.0 14.0 101.1 61.9 53.9 3.0 10.9 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 14.8 20.0 19.0 126.0 68.1 56.4 4.9 12.4 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 6.3 8.7 14.5 100.0 61.1 53.4 1.0 4.1 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 10.1 10.1 13.1 100.1 61.7 53.8 2.1 8.0 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 10.6 15.8 13.4 118.4 65.5 55.0 2.7 7.7 16.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 13.4 18.7 17.6 115.2 64.9 56.2 4.0 11.3 18.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 11.4 17.0 14.6 128.1 67.2 57.6 2.5 8.5 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 12.5 17.0 22.1 121.8 67.1 59.2 6.5 9.3 17.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 9.6 11.3 15.2 113.4 63.0 55.3 2.1 7.8 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 11.2 17.7 14.1 116.8 66.7 55.5 2.5 8.5 17.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 12.3 15.4 15.6 129.7 67.2 57.2 2.2 8.9 14.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 11.8 16.7 17.2 120.7 65.6 56.0 4.1 9.6 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 8.2 11.0 16.5 116.4 64.7 55.9 1.5 5.8 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 7.9 9.2 15.3 105.4 62.7 53.9 2.2 5.5 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 10.9 13.7 16.2 123.7 67.8 56.3 4.6 8.9 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 6.6 8.2 12.9 95.4 60.5 52.0 0.9 3.0 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 21.7 25.5 18.9 118.1 65.5 57.1 6.9 19.3 25.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 9.7 15.7 14.9 128.8 66.3 57.3 1.9 7.9 15.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------