***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.10.2019.-03.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 3.0 7.7 10.9 88.3 56.8 47.8 0.3 6.2 11.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 4.1 7.0 11.6 104.2 61.3 50.8 0.8 2.5 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 6.0 7.1 10.5 87.9 58.7 47.9 0.3 3.2 11.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 2.2 6.2 11.0 81.3 57.8 45.1 1.9 4.3 9.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 1.7 6.8 10.4 79.1 57.7 44.6 0.4 4.0 9.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 3.7 3.1 11.8 91.6 61.0 49.6 0.3 2.6 3.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 5.6 5.1 11.5 101.6 59.5 49.8 0.6 3.9 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 2.6 7.6 12.2 85.6 58.5 49.0 1.0 5.3 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 1.0 2.7 10.2 78.3 55.1 44.6 0.1 2.2 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 2.4 5.6 11.4 83.7 56.8 47.4 0.7 5.1 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 1.2 5.6 10.8 81.7 58.1 46.2 0.3 2.7 7.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 1.5 5.1 11.6 86.4 59.1 48.4 0.5 3.3 6.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 1.5 5.4 11.4 85.5 57.2 49.1 0.4 3.3 7.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 12.2 15.0 13.6 100.0 63.8 52.3 1.1 8.9 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 0.7 2.1 10.4 81.2 60.6 46.0 0.2 1.5 2.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 0.9 3.5 10.9 83.8 58.4 47.8 0.3 1.9 4.4 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 1.3 4.4 12.5 109.9 61.9 50.2 0.5 2.8 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 5.9 8.5 12.3 86.7 57.0 48.2 1.7 4.2 9.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 6.6 6.5 11.5 103.4 62.3 51.3 0.7 3.9 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 6.9 4.9 15.3 86.5 57.6 49.8 0.9 3.6 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 6.2 7.9 10.0 78.4 55.8 44.7 0.4 4.2 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 6.2 6.5 13.6 116.6 62.8 52.7 0.7 3.2 8.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 6.4 7.2 11.7 102.4 63.5 51.6 1.2 3.3 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 9.1 11.5 11.7 88.5 58.5 48.3 1.1 6.3 13.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 6.1 5.3 11.0 78.3 54.9 43.8 1.1 3.7 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 1.1 3.6 12.1 85.2 56.7 48.0 0.4 2.5 5.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 6.1 6.0 11.2 84.7 56.7 46.5 0.2 4.4 9.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 1.4 3.9 10.4 82.1 59.6 45.9 0.2 2.9 4.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 10.7 13.8 13.7 90.5 59.4 49.7 2.5 8.4 15.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 4.4 5.0 11.3 99.5 60.7 50.5 1.0 2.9 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------