***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.10.2019.-27.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 2.0 3.0 4.6 39.0 38.3 29.8 2.5 4.9 12.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 2.1 1.0 4.3 39.5 39.9 30.4 0.5 4.9 9.9 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 2.6 4.3 4.5 39.9 40.3 30.4 2.8 6.2 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 2.6 2.4 3.9 29.4 34.4 26.2 2.1 8.0 15.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 71 29 0 100 2.7 3.9 4.0 32.4 36.0 26.3 3.2 7.6 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 74 26 0 100 1.2 2.5 3.4 32.0 36.6 23.7 1.2 4.3 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 1.5 2.9 4.1 36.7 39.5 29.2 1.8 4.1 8.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 71 29 0 100 3.6 4.5 4.5 35.2 34.8 25.9 4.4 9.9 17.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 71 29 0 100 2.6 3.9 4.0 33.2 35.3 27.0 3.4 7.3 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 75 25 0 100 2.9 3.8 4.4 33.6 33.8 25.2 3.6 8.3 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 72 28 0 100 2.1 2.3 4.1 34.4 36.9 26.4 2.3 5.9 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 71 29 0 100 1.8 3.2 4.4 39.2 38.7 27.3 2.1 6.1 7.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 73 27 0 100 2.1 3.1 4.8 39.6 37.7 25.4 2.7 6.4 10.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 4.7 8.7 6.1 44.7 41.0 31.5 5.7 10.9 20.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 1.6 2.2 3.5 28.2 41.2 26.5 1.5 4.7 13.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 73 27 0 100 1.3 3.2 4.2 35.6 38.3 26.5 3.0 4.3 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 0.8 1.4 4.3 38.3 36.4 29.2 1.1 2.3 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 2.4 4.1 5.2 38.2 36.2 27.7 3.3 6.8 12.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 2.4 4.1 4.5 40.9 41.8 31.5 2.0 5.8 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 3.3 4.3 5.5 38.2 37.0 28.2 4.1 7.9 12.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 2.1 3.6 4.1 35.0 37.4 28.1 2.7 5.9 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 1.8 2.9 4.9 42.6 39.8 30.5 0.8 5.1 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 4.0 7.5 4.9 43.2 42.5 32.4 3.5 9.1 20.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 3.2 5.8 5.1 40.1 38.9 30.1 5.0 8.0 15.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 1.5 1.6 4.4 33.2 38.3 27.1 1.4 3.5 8.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 3.2 4.1 4.7 46.0 42.2 29.4 2.7 8.6 12.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 1.0 1.4 4.4 35.4 37.6 27.9 1.0 2.9 11.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 73 27 0 100 2.0 2.5 3.6 30.2 37.6 26.2 1.7 7.3 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 3.9 7.1 5.4 40.3 37.8 29.0 5.8 8.6 18.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 2.3 3.6 4.3 39.4 40.8 30.4 1.2 5.3 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------