***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.10.2019.-17.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 19 81 100 15.3 16.7 16.0 2.7 86.7 78.3 12.3 13.5 14.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 19 81 100 15.0 16.0 15.8 2.5 82.8 76.2 11.9 12.8 13.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 21 79 100 15.6 16.6 16.2 2.4 82.1 74.9 12.6 13.5 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 9.3 10.2 13.3 2.7 87.4 77.7 6.6 7.6 8.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 15.0 16.1 14.5 2.5 83.2 74.7 13.0 13.8 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 14.6 15.4 13.6 2.7 86.0 76.3 12.7 13.8 14.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 14.6 15.6 15.5 2.4 83.3 75.9 11.8 12.7 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 7.6 8.7 13.6 2.3 80.4 73.0 5.0 6.0 6.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 15.8 16.8 15.1 2.4 82.2 73.7 13.0 14.1 15.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 15.2 16.0 14.3 2.5 80.8 73.3 12.8 13.5 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 15.5 16.2 14.8 2.5 81.9 74.3 13.3 14.2 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 15.4 16.0 14.2 2.4 82.8 74.2 12.8 14.1 15.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 15.6 16.6 14.3 2.5 84.6 74.9 13.2 14.4 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 16.1 16.6 14.9 1.8 74.1 68.4 13.0 13.8 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 20 80 100 13.1 15.4 14.5 2.7 89.8 80.1 11.8 12.5 13.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 15.9 16.7 14.5 2.6 84.9 75.6 14.0 14.8 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 18 82 100 14.1 14.9 15.2 2.2 80.8 74.9 11.3 12.2 12.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 14.3 15.0 14.0 2.3 77.4 71.1 11.9 12.5 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 20 80 100 15.3 16.3 15.9 2.4 81.7 75.1 12.1 13.2 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 12.4 13.1 12.1 2.1 78.6 71.3 10.1 11.0 12.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 15.4 16.7 15.6 2.3 81.5 73.7 12.7 13.6 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 21 79 100 15.0 15.7 15.0 2.0 78.1 72.7 11.8 12.7 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 20 80 100 15.4 15.9 15.9 2.1 77.9 71.9 12.2 13.1 14.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 16.3 16.9 15.1 2.1 76.7 70.7 13.2 14.3 15.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 19 81 100 14.2 15.5 14.6 2.6 86.6 77.1 11.8 12.8 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 15.3 16.4 13.5 2.3 85.6 75.1 12.6 13.8 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 14.8 16.4 15.5 2.7 87.0 78.0 12.5 13.3 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 14.0 15.3 13.9 2.7 87.7 77.6 11.9 13.0 13.4 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 11.5 12.0 13.2 2.1 76.2 69.8 9.5 10.2 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 19 81 100 14.7 15.9 15.9 2.5 83.8 76.4 11.9 12.8 13.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------