***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.11.2019.-17.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 8.2 11.0 10.4 0.1 51.1 50.3 9.2 10.9 12.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 7.0 10.0 10.3 0.2 50.3 50.4 6.5 10.0 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 8.5 11.6 10.6 0.0 50.3 49.0 7.8 11.6 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 3.0 6.0 8.1 0.2 50.2 51.3 4.1 6.0 6.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 8.6 11.4 8.9 -0.1 47.8 48.8 10.4 11.7 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 8.1 11.1 8.1 0.0 45.3 49.4 10.2 11.4 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 7.0 9.8 10.3 0.2 51.3 50.3 6.9 9.8 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 1.8 3.8 8.3 -0.1 46.0 48.0 3.1 4.4 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 9.1 11.6 9.4 -0.1 47.6 47.7 9.6 12.0 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 8.5 10.9 8.8 -0.2 46.3 47.6 9.7 11.4 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 8.9 11.6 9.1 0.0 47.6 48.6 10.9 11.7 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 8.9 11.5 8.8 0.0 46.2 48.7 10.3 11.8 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 8.9 11.8 8.4 0.0 47.4 49.4 10.8 11.9 13.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 8.8 11.2 9.5 -0.5 45.9 45.7 8.5 11.9 13.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 7.8 8.9 9.0 0.4 51.8 52.9 7.6 8.9 9.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 9.3 12.0 8.8 0.1 48.8 49.8 11.7 12.0 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 7.1 9.7 10.1 0.2 50.0 50.0 6.7 9.7 11.8 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 8.0 10.1 8.6 -0.3 45.0 46.5 8.2 10.9 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 7.8 11.0 10.5 0.1 50.3 49.9 6.8 10.9 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 6.0 9.0 7.0 -0.2 45.4 47.4 7.4 9.0 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 8.6 11.7 10.0 -0.1 48.1 48.1 8.8 11.7 13.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 7.6 10.5 10.1 0.1 50.6 49.5 6.8 10.4 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 7.9 10.5 10.6 -0.1 49.0 48.4 7.0 10.7 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 9.4 12.0 9.5 -0.3 46.5 46.8 9.1 12.6 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 7.4 10.2 8.9 0.1 51.4 50.3 8.5 10.2 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 9.0 11.1 8.3 -0.1 44.0 49.6 9.3 11.5 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 8.3 11.3 9.9 0.2 51.8 50.4 8.4 11.2 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 8.4 9.6 8.5 0.3 50.7 51.4 8.7 9.5 10.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 5.0 7.9 8.0 -0.4 44.1 46.0 6.9 8.2 9.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 7.3 10.2 10.4 0.1 50.8 50.3 7.1 10.1 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------