***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.11.2019.-10.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 14.9 14.1 14.1 2.1 72.1 65.2 11.2 13.0 13.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 13.4 13.4 13.7 1.7 70.4 62.7 11.2 11.9 13.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 14.5 14.3 14.2 1.9 68.8 63.2 11.1 13.0 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 8.2 9.0 11.9 2.3 72.9 67.0 4.7 5.9 7.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 14.8 14.3 12.7 2.1 69.6 65.3 10.8 12.7 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 21 79 100 14.8 14.9 12.3 2.7 73.3 68.4 10.3 12.4 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 13.8 13.6 13.6 1.7 71.4 62.5 10.6 11.8 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 7.2 7.2 12.0 2.1 66.9 64.8 3.8 5.6 7.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 15.5 15.0 13.3 2.1 68.7 64.6 11.7 13.0 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 14.3 14.2 12.7 2.1 68.0 64.6 11.4 12.4 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 15.7 15.1 13.0 2.3 71.8 66.2 11.2 12.8 14.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 14.8 14.5 12.7 2.2 70.5 66.5 11.0 12.2 14.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 15.4 15.5 12.5 2.5 73.2 68.1 10.6 12.4 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.9 14.5 12.9 1.3 59.4 59.0 11.2 13.1 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 12.8 13.1 12.6 2.3 75.1 67.8 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 23 77 100 16.1 15.7 12.9 2.5 73.8 67.8 11.2 13.6 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 12.9 12.8 13.3 1.6 68.7 61.4 10.3 11.6 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 13.8 13.0 12.4 1.9 65.5 62.5 10.1 10.8 13.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 13.9 13.5 13.9 1.7 67.7 62.2 11.1 12.3 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 10.9 11.0 10.4 1.7 62.1 61.9 8.1 10.2 11.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 15.1 14.7 13.7 2.0 69.1 64.1 11.2 12.9 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 12.8 13.2 13.1 1.3 62.5 60.3 10.5 12.3 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 13.2 13.7 14.0 1.5 63.9 60.9 10.8 12.6 14.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 15.3 14.9 13.2 1.7 64.0 61.6 12.0 13.6 15.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 14.1 13.8 12.7 2.2 73.6 66.1 10.1 12.4 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 14.6 14.9 12.1 2.2 71.9 67.6 10.4 12.5 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 14.9 15.0 13.6 2.2 73.6 65.7 10.8 12.7 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 13.3 13.3 12.3 2.4 73.6 67.3 10.5 12.1 13.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 11.7 11.0 11.6 1.7 61.9 61.4 7.1 9.0 11.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 13.6 13.5 13.8 1.8 70.9 63.2 10.9 12.2 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------