***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.10.2019.-03.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 17.3 17.0 16.7 2.4 74.3 68.9 12.8 15.2 16.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 15.7 15.6 16.4 1.9 70.3 66.4 13.0 14.3 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 18.3 17.9 16.9 2.0 69.0 66.1 12.9 15.6 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 12.2 12.4 14.2 2.5 76.5 67.9 6.9 9.6 11.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 17.9 16.5 15.2 2.0 66.4 65.3 13.5 14.7 16.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 17.2 16.1 14.5 2.3 67.8 66.0 13.7 14.9 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 15.5 15.1 16.2 1.9 69.7 66.4 12.7 14.0 14.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 9.4 8.0 14.2 1.7 63.3 63.3 6.4 7.7 8.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 18.4 16.8 16.0 2.0 66.5 65.6 13.2 15.4 16.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 18.0 16.7 15.1 1.9 64.6 64.3 13.1 14.8 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 18.2 17.1 15.7 1.9 65.5 64.7 13.5 15.2 17.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 17.8 16.0 14.9 1.8 65.0 64.3 13.3 15.4 16.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 18.1 16.4 15.3 1.9 64.1 65.1 13.9 15.4 16.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 18.8 17.3 15.5 1.2 62.4 60.5 11.7 16.6 17.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 16.2 16.8 15.7 2.6 80.9 70.2 13.0 14.6 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 18.8 17.4 15.4 2.1 66.1 65.8 14.8 15.7 17.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 14.8 14.6 15.6 1.6 67.8 64.8 12.2 13.3 14.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 16.2 14.9 14.5 1.6 61.4 62.4 12.1 13.3 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 16.5 17.0 16.5 1.8 69.0 65.9 12.4 14.6 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 14.7 13.4 12.6 1.4 60.1 61.6 10.7 12.4 13.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 17.8 17.0 16.4 1.8 66.4 65.0 12.9 15.5 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 16.0 15.7 15.5 1.4 66.0 63.2 12.3 14.3 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 16.9 16.2 16.5 1.5 66.5 63.9 12.1 15.0 16.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 18.4 17.4 15.8 1.6 62.7 62.5 12.6 15.8 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 25 75 100 15.8 15.8 15.5 2.2 72.3 67.2 13.1 14.0 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 17.4 15.9 14.3 1.8 63.6 65.4 13.4 15.4 16.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 17.4 17.4 16.2 2.3 73.5 68.4 13.2 14.6 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 17.3 17.8 15.0 2.6 76.6 68.5 12.7 15.5 17.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 14.1 12.6 13.7 1.4 58.8 61.1 9.4 12.1 13.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 15.7 15.8 16.6 2.0 71.7 67.2 12.9 14.1 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------