***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.10.2019.-27.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 18.9 24.3 22.7 6.4 99.5 97.9 14.3 14.9 17.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 18.7 23.8 22.7 6.1 98.8 97.3 14.0 15.3 17.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 19.6 22.9 22.9 6.0 96.2 95.4 15.0 16.2 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 1 99 100 12.7 17.5 18.9 5.8 94.8 94.4 6.5 8.8 10.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 19.4 22.8 20.9 5.8 96.3 94.7 14.6 16.2 17.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 18.8 22.4 19.6 5.8 97.1 95.3 13.8 15.8 17.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 18.5 23.1 22.1 5.8 97.4 96.6 13.6 15.3 17.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 10.4 13.6 19.8 5.6 94.0 92.9 6.1 7.6 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 19.8 23.9 21.7 5.6 96.3 94.6 14.7 16.7 18.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 19.4 22.8 20.8 5.9 95.0 93.9 13.9 16.2 17.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 20.1 23.5 21.5 5.6 95.7 94.2 14.4 16.8 18.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 19.5 22.3 20.4 5.6 95.3 93.8 14.0 16.8 17.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 20.1 23.1 21.1 5.5 96.2 94.4 14.6 16.9 18.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 20.3 22.2 21.7 5.3 91.3 91.5 14.8 16.7 18.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 17.2 21.8 20.8 5.5 97.7 96.3 13.5 14.7 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 20.5 24.2 20.9 5.7 97.1 95.0 15.1 17.6 19.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 18.2 22.5 21.6 5.6 97.2 96.0 13.1 15.1 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 18.2 22.5 20.4 5.9 93.9 93.2 12.9 15.1 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 18.8 24.0 22.8 6.0 98.4 96.8 14.2 15.5 17.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 15.8 18.4 18.5 5.6 93.4 92.0 11.0 13.0 14.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 19.5 22.7 22.2 5.5 95.1 94.1 14.4 16.4 17.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 19.6 23.2 21.4 5.1 95.4 94.2 14.2 15.5 17.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 19.2 23.2 22.3 5.4 95.8 94.7 14.4 15.9 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 20.2 23.1 21.9 5.6 92.7 92.5 14.4 17.2 18.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 18.8 22.6 21.4 6.0 97.8 96.4 13.9 15.0 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 19.2 22.0 19.2 5.2 95.4 93.5 14.5 16.7 18.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 19.2 24.0 22.1 6.2 99.1 97.7 14.4 15.5 17.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 1 99 100 18.1 22.5 19.7 5.5 95.8 94.6 13.3 14.6 16.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 1 99 100 14.9 18.8 19.7 5.7 93.4 92.4 10.3 12.5 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 19.0 23.6 22.7 6.1 98.4 97.2 13.8 15.1 17.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------