***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.10.2019.-17.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 5.4 6.1 8.3 2.1 85.7 76.6 3.3 3.9 5.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 5.1 5.7 7.4 1.6 79.0 72.7 2.9 3.6 4.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 6.9 7.6 8.0 1.8 82.7 74.6 5.0 5.4 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 1.9 2.9 5.4 1.8 82.8 75.2 -0.2 0.6 1.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 4.1 4.8 6.0 1.6 79.7 73.2 2.4 2.9 3.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 3.5 4.0 4.0 1.8 79.9 76.3 1.8 2.5 2.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 4.8 5.4 7.5 1.7 79.7 73.1 3.0 3.5 4.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 0.0 0.4 4.0 1.5 79.7 73.1 -1.9 -1.1 0.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 5.3 5.8 5.9 1.4 78.2 71.9 3.5 3.8 4.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 4.6 5.0 4.5 1.5 77.8 71.8 3.2 3.5 4.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 4.1 4.5 5.3 1.4 77.8 72.0 2.6 3.1 4.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 3.5 3.9 4.8 1.6 80.8 74.3 1.8 2.4 3.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 3.7 4.0 4.3 1.4 77.1 71.6 2.3 2.7 3.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 5.2 5.4 5.5 1.1 68.8 66.8 3.5 4.2 5.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 4.2 4.7 6.3 1.5 81.0 74.6 2.9 3.6 4.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 5.2 5.6 4.8 1.5 78.0 72.4 3.4 4.0 4.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 4.9 5.2 7.1 1.4 75.3 70.5 3.2 3.8 4.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 3.0 3.2 3.9 1.4 76.6 70.1 1.9 2.2 2.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 5.0 5.6 7.4 1.6 79.4 72.6 3.2 3.5 4.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 0.9 1.4 2.9 1.5 78.7 71.7 -0.9 -0.3 0.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 4.9 5.5 7.1 1.6 78.9 72.3 3.0 3.4 4.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 4.3 4.4 7.0 1.3 74.0 69.4 2.6 3.1 4.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 4.8 5.3 7.2 1.4 78.7 71.6 3.1 3.5 4.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 4.3 4.3 5.4 1.3 74.9 69.2 2.9 3.2 3.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 25 75 100 4.7 5.7 7.3 2.0 85.0 76.6 3.6 3.7 4.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 22 78 100 4.2 4.6 4.3 1.6 80.3 75.0 2.6 3.2 3.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 5.4 6.4 7.9 2.0 84.3 76.2 3.4 3.7 5.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 2.9 3.4 5.4 1.6 79.9 73.7 1.4 2.1 3.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 3.2 3.6 3.4 1.3 75.1 69.1 1.2 2.0 3.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 5.4 6.2 7.8 1.8 82.5 74.6 3.3 3.9 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------