***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.11.2019.-17.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 1.8 2.7 4.1 0.1 46.8 50.0 1.8 3.1 4.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 0.9 1.9 3.6 0.0 47.3 49.7 0.8 2.4 4.0 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 2.9 4.7 4.1 0.2 47.3 51.4 2.8 4.8 5.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 -2.6 -0.7 1.5 0.1 48.2 50.1 -1.8 -0.6 0.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 0.6 2.3 1.9 0.0 44.7 49.6 0.8 2.5 3.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 -0.2 1.5 0.3 0.1 46.8 52.1 0.1 1.9 2.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 0.9 1.6 3.7 -0.1 46.8 49.3 0.9 1.8 4.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 -4.8 -2.6 0.5 0.3 48.7 51.8 -3.3 -2.5 -1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 1.1 2.3 2.3 0.1 44.4 50.1 1.9 2.7 3.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 0.8 2.4 1.0 0.2 46.8 51.2 0.7 2.5 3.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 0.6 2.1 1.5 0.1 49.4 50.8 0.9 2.2 2.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 -0.4 1.2 1.0 0.2 49.5 51.8 0.6 1.3 2.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 -0.1 1.1 0.6 0.0 45.3 50.8 0.0 1.8 3.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 1.5 2.5 2.0 -0.1 45.9 50.2 1.8 2.7 4.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 2.4 2.0 2.6 0.2 50.5 51.1 0.9 1.9 2.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 1.3 2.8 1.0 0.0 47.7 50.7 1.5 2.9 3.7 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 0.8 1.5 3.4 -0.2 44.9 48.4 1.0 1.7 3.9 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 -0.3 1.1 0.3 0.1 45.9 51.3 -0.2 1.3 2.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 1.0 2.2 3.7 0.0 48.5 50.6 1.1 2.3 3.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 -3.3 -1.7 -0.8 0.1 46.2 50.9 -2.8 -1.4 -0.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 0.8 2.1 3.4 0.1 45.9 50.3 1.5 2.3 4.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 0.5 1.3 3.3 -0.1 45.4 49.0 1.0 1.7 3.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 0.9 2.0 3.7 0.1 48.6 51.5 1.3 2.0 3.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 0.7 2.1 1.9 0.1 46.5 51.9 0.4 2.1 3.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 1.3 2.7 3.0 0.1 47.7 50.0 1.3 2.9 3.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 0.2 1.3 0.5 0.0 46.8 51.3 0.3 1.7 2.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 1.3 2.2 3.7 0.1 47.1 49.9 1.2 2.4 4.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 1.2 0.8 1.6 0.1 49.3 50.4 0.0 0.8 2.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 -1.7 -0.2 0.0 0.1 45.0 50.5 -0.6 0.0 1.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 1.1 1.9 3.8 0.1 47.4 50.3 1.3 2.1 4.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------