***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.11.2019.-10.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 22 78 100 6.4 6.8 7.2 1.8 73.2 65.8 2.1 3.7 5.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 5.4 5.0 6.5 1.5 70.0 63.5 1.8 2.9 4.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 7.1 7.3 7.0 1.7 73.2 65.9 4.2 5.3 6.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 1.7 1.5 4.4 1.7 72.1 66.0 -1.0 0.3 1.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 4.7 4.9 5.0 1.8 72.8 66.2 1.0 2.7 4.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 3.6 3.8 3.2 1.9 72.5 68.1 0.7 2.6 3.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 5.0 4.7 6.5 1.5 69.6 63.2 2.1 3.0 4.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 0.3 0.2 3.4 1.8 71.7 67.3 -3.2 -0.9 -0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 5.8 5.8 5.3 1.8 73.2 66.3 2.4 3.7 4.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 5.2 5.0 4.0 1.8 72.7 66.7 1.9 3.2 4.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 4.8 4.9 4.5 1.8 73.5 66.9 1.4 2.9 4.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 3.7 3.9 4.0 1.8 72.0 67.5 0.6 2.1 2.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 4.1 4.3 3.7 1.9 72.1 67.9 1.0 2.0 3.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 5.8 5.7 4.9 1.4 68.7 64.3 2.9 3.9 5.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 5.0 4.8 5.3 1.6 70.6 66.3 1.5 3.0 3.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 5.5 5.1 4.0 1.8 72.5 67.1 2.3 3.6 4.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 4.8 4.1 6.2 1.3 67.7 62.0 1.8 3.4 3.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 3.6 2.9 3.3 1.7 69.4 65.6 0.8 1.8 2.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 5.6 5.3 6.5 1.5 70.4 64.4 2.0 3.5 4.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 1.3 0.8 2.1 1.7 67.2 65.8 -2.1 -1.3 0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 5.5 5.3 6.4 1.8 72.7 66.2 1.6 3.3 4.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 4.6 4.2 6.1 1.3 68.2 63.0 1.7 2.5 3.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 23 77 100 5.2 5.6 6.5 1.5 71.0 65.2 2.1 3.1 4.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 4.6 4.4 4.7 1.5 70.5 65.3 1.9 2.9 3.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 5.9 5.5 6.1 1.9 72.8 66.4 1.7 3.0 4.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 4.6 4.4 3.4 1.9 71.5 68.4 1.5 2.6 4.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 24 76 100 6.2 6.6 6.8 1.9 73.4 65.9 1.6 3.3 4.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 3.5 3.1 4.5 1.7 71.3 66.1 0.3 1.2 2.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 2.9 2.8 2.9 1.6 66.6 64.8 -0.1 0.9 2.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 22 78 100 6.0 5.9 6.7 1.6 72.1 64.4 2.1 3.3 4.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------