***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.10.2019.-03.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 6.4 6.3 8.9 1.8 68.2 67.2 3.4 4.4 6.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 5.9 5.2 8.0 1.4 64.1 64.8 2.7 4.2 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 8.1 7.7 8.7 1.5 67.5 66.5 5.6 6.6 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 3.8 3.3 6.0 1.5 65.8 65.5 0.6 1.7 3.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 4.7 4.4 6.9 1.5 66.5 65.4 1.8 3.1 4.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 3.8 4.0 4.9 1.8 69.8 69.1 1.4 2.2 3.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 5.5 5.0 8.1 1.5 63.5 64.9 2.8 4.4 5.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 0.8 0.9 4.9 1.5 66.9 66.4 -0.9 0.0 0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 6.0 5.7 6.8 1.4 67.5 65.8 3.2 4.5 5.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 5.9 5.3 5.4 1.4 66.7 65.7 2.6 4.1 5.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 5.2 4.3 6.3 1.4 66.0 65.8 2.6 3.5 4.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 4.9 3.9 5.7 1.6 68.4 66.5 1.3 2.6 3.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 5.1 3.4 5.5 1.6 67.7 66.6 1.9 2.6 3.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 6.3 5.4 6.3 1.1 62.2 63.3 3.8 5.2 5.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 6.5 6.4 7.3 1.6 71.3 68.5 3.4 4.6 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 5.7 4.7 5.8 1.6 65.9 66.2 3.0 4.0 4.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 5.6 5.6 7.6 1.2 60.9 62.7 2.9 4.6 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 4.4 3.9 4.8 1.3 64.8 64.7 1.1 2.5 4.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 6.0 5.4 8.0 1.4 65.2 65.2 3.3 4.4 5.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 0.9 0.7 3.8 1.4 65.7 65.3 -1.2 -0.4 0.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 5.7 5.5 8.0 1.5 67.0 65.8 2.8 4.3 5.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 5.3 4.6 7.7 1.1 61.8 62.7 2.6 4.0 4.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 5.9 5.4 7.9 1.3 64.2 65.3 3.1 4.6 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 5.6 4.7 6.4 1.2 64.9 64.9 2.5 4.3 4.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 6.0 5.4 8.1 1.8 68.1 67.0 2.0 5.0 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 4.8 4.6 5.5 1.8 67.3 67.9 1.9 3.0 4.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 6.2 6.1 8.5 1.9 67.8 66.7 2.8 4.4 5.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 4.4 3.6 6.3 1.6 67.9 66.2 2.0 2.8 3.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 4.5 3.3 4.2 1.2 63.6 64.6 1.2 2.6 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 6.2 5.7 8.4 1.6 65.4 66.2 3.6 4.3 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------