***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.10.2019.-27.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 2 98 100 8.2 10.6 12.9 4.5 99.2 97.0 3.7 5.2 7.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 2 98 100 8.4 9.8 11.6 3.6 92.4 91.7 4.0 5.6 7.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 2 98 100 10.0 12.6 12.1 3.7 95.6 93.4 5.2 7.2 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 1 99 100 5.3 9.0 9.5 3.8 94.6 93.3 0.5 1.8 3.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 3 97 100 7.3 8.7 10.2 3.3 92.2 89.4 3.8 4.7 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 3 97 100 6.8 7.8 7.5 3.2 92.4 90.6 3.3 4.2 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 2 98 100 7.8 9.9 11.8 3.8 93.9 92.2 3.8 5.7 7.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 6 94 100 3.0 4.3 7.3 2.7 88.3 86.0 -1.3 0.5 1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 6 94 100 8.8 9.4 9.3 2.6 90.6 87.1 4.3 5.7 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 12 88 100 7.4 8.6 7.7 2.5 85.7 83.6 4.0 5.2 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 8 92 100 7.0 8.2 8.8 2.5 86.8 84.1 3.7 5.5 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 4 96 100 6.8 7.3 8.4 2.9 90.5 88.2 2.8 4.0 6.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 6.5 6.9 7.5 2.1 80.8 78.3 3.7 5.6 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 7.8 8.4 8.5 2.0 77.9 75.8 4.4 6.0 7.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 5 95 100 6.3 8.5 9.8 2.6 91.9 89.3 4.0 4.8 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 10 90 100 8.1 8.9 8.4 2.6 86.4 83.9 4.7 6.0 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 2 98 100 7.9 9.4 11.1 3.4 90.2 89.2 3.8 5.7 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 15 85 100 6.7 7.3 7.4 2.5 82.9 81.4 3.3 4.2 5.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 3 97 100 8.3 9.9 11.3 3.3 91.7 90.6 3.8 5.8 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 4 96 100 3.8 4.6 6.5 2.9 86.8 85.6 -0.2 2.2 3.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 3 97 100 8.0 9.2 10.7 2.9 91.3 88.3 4.0 5.6 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 8 92 100 7.2 8.3 10.8 2.9 88.7 86.2 2.9 5.4 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 6 94 100 7.9 9.0 10.8 2.9 89.3 88.3 3.7 5.1 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 20 80 100 7.3 8.0 8.7 2.1 81.2 78.7 3.7 5.0 6.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 2 98 100 8.2 11.0 12.2 4.3 98.3 96.1 4.3 5.6 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 6 94 100 7.0 7.3 7.9 2.8 86.0 85.0 4.4 5.2 6.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 3 97 100 9.0 11.4 12.5 4.3 97.2 94.4 4.0 5.7 8.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 4 96 100 5.7 7.6 9.1 3.0 91.0 88.5 3.5 4.0 4.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 16 84 100 5.9 6.6 6.4 2.3 81.6 80.1 1.2 2.9 6.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 2 98 100 8.6 11.1 12.2 4.0 96.9 94.7 3.9 6.1 7.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------