***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.10.2013.-17.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 75 25 0 100 9999.0 0.0 28.4 55.3 25.6 27.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 80 20 0 100 18.0 25.5 29.6 58.7 29.1 29.3 26.3 35.1 51.9 30 Becej 27400G00 73 27 0 100 27.3 26.8 29.2 57.4 29.8 28.8 29.4 45.4 63.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 27.7 32.8 32.1 59.6 30.1 30.4 36.0 41.4 62.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 71 29 0 100 28.5 30.5 29.6 57.5 29.3 28.9 31.3 43.8 51.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 72 28 0 100 21.8 30.9 34.0 66.6 33.0 32.8 30.9 39.8 48.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 81 19 0 100 14.3 19.8 31.1 61.4 29.2 30.2 22.1 32.9 41.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 74 26 0 100 33.4 32.5 31.7 57.9 27.5 28.6 40.4 58.0 74.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 25.2 28.2 30.5 59.8 33.5 30.4 27.9 36.2 45.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 27.4 27.7 31.7 58.8 28.5 29.1 32.6 40.9 48.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 72 28 0 100 24.2 23.3 27.4 57.5 28.0 28.4 26.3 33.2 47.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 77 23 0 100 25.4 24.9 27.8 57.6 27.2 28.4 26.2 39.3 56.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 75 25 0 100 23.6 32.8 28.1 55.5 26.4 26.9 36.8 46.3 53.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 73 27 0 100 37.6 36.4 33.5 56.5 26.5 27.5 44.7 56.5 74.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 20.4 24.5 33.7 61.5 35.0 32.0 23.5 31.4 50.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 71 29 0 100 24.7 27.3 28.2 58.6 28.6 28.7 29.1 33.9 39.0 30 Nis 06700G01 78 22 0 100 19.7 23.0 31.0 62.4 30.6 30.7 23.6 33.7 53.0 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 33.5 33.3 37.0 61.9 31.0 31.0 35.1 49.3 61.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 78 22 0 100 22.8 26.2 29.3 57.9 29.0 28.9 28.2 41.7 56.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 35.9 33.4 45.4 60.7 28.5 30.9 38.9 54.0 80.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 22.7 24.9 29.3 58.3 30.6 29.7 29.6 44.2 57.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 76 24 0 100 23.6 30.7 32.7 63.8 29.9 31.6 32.3 39.9 53.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 73 27 0 100 25.7 26.7 30.0 57.6 29.1 28.2 28.8 41.8 64.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 32.6 28.1 32.8 58.7 30.1 29.3 32.2 54.7 62.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 76 24 0 100 19.5 16.8 30.7 54.1 23.1 26.3 21.4 39.5 56.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 27.6 25.4 29.0 57.6 28.3 28.6 30.3 42.8 54.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 74 26 0 100 19.6 20.0 30.8 55.6 24.1 27.1 23.7 39.8 50.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 24.1 21.7 32.2 62.6 33.7 32.1 21.7 34.8 50.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 46.8 58.6 40.7 61.4 31.0 30.9 59.4 63.3 83.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 77 23 0 100 20.4 20.8 29.7 58.4 28.4 29.0 22.8 36.8 49.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------