***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.11.2013.-17.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 0.0 9.2 76.5 47.3 43.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 4.4 9.5 8.0 69.5 48.1 42.2 3.4 9.7 16.8 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 4.5 9.3 9.0 75.2 48.0 43.2 5.7 10.8 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 4.9 14.4 12.0 97.6 57.8 48.8 5.1 9.8 18.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 6.4 14.1 11.0 94.0 56.4 48.1 5.5 11.6 20.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 6.6 18.4 13.3 118.2 63.9 53.1 4.3 12.8 19.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 5.2 8.2 8.2 71.6 48.1 42.1 4.2 9.7 13.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 8.8 21.3 11.1 93.0 54.4 48.0 10.2 18.4 23.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 6.0 13.2 10.6 89.9 54.5 47.9 3.7 11.6 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 5.6 13.4 10.8 90.5 53.4 47.2 6.1 11.9 20.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 5.3 13.8 10.1 97.8 56.4 48.5 6.3 11.1 18.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 5.2 21.0 10.4 99.5 59.5 49.9 3.4 11.2 26.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 4.8 11.9 11.7 104.3 58.9 49.9 7.2 10.1 20.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 8.4 15.6 9.6 71.1 49.9 42.6 6.6 15.6 22.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 3.6 18.5 13.2 108.0 62.6 50.5 3.5 7.3 20.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 4.4 16.4 10.8 102.3 58.1 49.4 5.6 9.4 19.7 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 5.0 9.5 7.5 70.2 48.7 43.8 4.8 9.5 14.1 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 4.8 11.2 11.4 82.9 52.0 44.9 6.3 10.1 22.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 5.7 8.9 7.8 67.2 46.8 41.4 3.8 11.9 18.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 8.4 17.5 14.2 82.2 50.6 44.8 7.7 16.4 25.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 5.5 11.8 10.2 87.2 53.4 46.7 4.2 10.0 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 5.1 8.8 7.5 67.8 47.9 43.3 2.5 9.6 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 4.3 9.4 7.9 66.2 46.5 40.9 5.2 9.9 19.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 5.3 12.8 10.0 77.6 50.6 44.2 5.1 12.3 18.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 4.0 6.3 10.6 79.6 46.5 44.6 3.1 7.8 15.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 6.9 18.1 12.4 110.9 62.5 52.2 10.5 13.8 20.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 3.8 6.9 9.9 75.3 45.3 43.0 4.5 8.3 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 3.6 18.9 12.4 107.2 62.8 49.9 3.6 7.4 19.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 7.9 16.8 12.2 79.6 51.0 44.1 12.1 16.5 29.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 4.8 9.2 8.3 70.6 47.4 41.8 4.4 11.0 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------