***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.11.2013.-10.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 0.0 10.2 77.8 48.2 44.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 2.8 11.1 11.0 80.6 53.6 43.4 3.5 6.9 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 4.8 11.5 10.8 84.5 53.8 45.1 3.8 9.9 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 3.0 5.6 10.9 74.2 48.6 43.5 1.6 5.8 17.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.4 8.1 10.8 76.4 50.2 43.4 2.2 8.1 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 9.6 7.5 12.6 81.2 51.8 44.3 1.3 6.9 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 3.7 9.8 11.2 80.9 53.0 43.7 2.3 8.6 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 4.9 12.6 12.3 77.9 52.8 43.0 5.8 10.2 25.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.4 8.1 11.1 80.7 53.8 44.9 1.3 6.9 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 5.6 13.3 12.1 80.9 54.3 44.3 2.0 11.0 17.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.5 8.9 10.2 74.9 51.6 42.2 1.4 8.9 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 3.8 8.3 10.4 73.4 50.0 41.7 3.4 8.3 16.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 4.3 10.2 11.0 72.9 48.2 39.1 3.0 10.9 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 16.0 13.1 13.1 85.7 51.4 44.2 4.9 12.4 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 1.9 4.8 11.1 73.3 54.5 44.1 1.0 4.1 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 3.8 7.6 10.6 75.0 49.4 41.5 2.1 8.0 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 3.6 9.6 11.3 78.7 54.0 43.5 2.7 7.7 16.0 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 6.2 16.8 14.3 89.0 59.3 46.5 4.0 11.3 18.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 3.8 9.5 11.1 82.9 54.7 44.0 2.5 8.5 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 4.4 14.4 18.4 87.6 56.8 45.4 6.5 9.3 17.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 4.0 8.7 10.6 81.0 53.1 45.3 2.1 7.8 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 3.7 11.2 11.7 79.8 53.4 43.0 2.5 8.5 17.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 4.3 9.6 11.5 86.3 55.2 45.1 2.2 8.9 14.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 5.1 12.8 12.7 88.7 57.2 45.7 4.1 9.6 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 2.6 5.7 11.3 76.2 49.8 43.3 1.5 5.8 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 2.1 5.3 10.8 71.6 49.6 38.7 2.2 5.5 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 4.2 8.3 11.2 78.5 49.3 44.1 4.6 8.9 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 1.5 3.5 10.9 75.4 51.5 44.1 0.9 3.0 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 9.5 21.7 15.9 89.1 57.8 45.9 6.9 19.3 25.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 3.3 10.7 10.8 81.0 53.6 43.9 1.9 7.9 15.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------