***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.10.2013.-03.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 9999.0 0.0 6.8 52.5 42.8 34.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 71 29 0 100 0.7 1.1 7.7 55.9 41.0 34.7 0.8 2.5 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 69 31 0 100 1.0 1.7 7.5 58.1 43.9 37.1 0.3 3.2 11.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 1.8 2.7 7.2 56.2 44.2 38.5 1.9 4.3 9.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 1.4 2.9 7.0 56.1 43.2 35.8 0.4 4.0 9.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 74 26 0 100 0.7 2.0 7.0 55.9 40.5 33.3 0.3 2.6 3.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 73 27 0 100 1.1 0.9 7.9 57.5 41.5 35.0 0.6 3.9 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 2.1 2.6 7.3 52.1 44.2 35.7 1.0 5.3 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 0.7 1.8 7.5 61.5 47.0 37.9 0.1 2.2 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 1.8 3.9 7.7 57.9 45.8 36.6 0.7 5.1 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 1.0 1.1 6.1 52.8 43.1 35.7 0.3 2.7 7.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 1.3 1.5 5.9 49.2 42.2 35.1 0.5 3.3 6.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 77 23 0 100 0.8 0.6 5.0 39.3 35.4 24.8 0.4 3.3 7.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 71 29 0 100 2.7 6.6 9.1 58.2 43.8 36.2 1.1 8.9 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 0.7 1.2 7.1 54.2 42.8 38.2 0.2 1.5 2.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 0.6 0.5 5.8 49.4 38.3 31.9 0.3 1.9 4.4 30 Nis 06700G01 70 30 0 100 0.8 1.3 7.9 57.3 39.4 34.0 0.5 2.8 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 1.5 3.7 10.0 65.1 46.9 38.4 1.7 4.2 9.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 71 29 0 100 1.1 1.7 7.7 56.6 42.6 36.4 0.7 3.9 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 1.4 3.3 11.7 56.8 45.7 35.0 0.9 3.6 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 1.4 3.8 7.1 58.6 47.2 37.6 0.4 4.2 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 1.2 1.7 8.7 61.4 40.7 38.2 0.7 3.2 8.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 73 27 0 100 0.9 2.2 8.0 58.7 44.8 38.7 1.2 3.3 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 71 29 0 100 1.8 3.4 9.0 62.8 44.7 38.2 1.1 6.3 13.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 1.2 1.6 7.2 50.1 39.7 34.1 1.1 3.7 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 0.8 0.7 5.4 43.7 40.8 28.6 0.4 2.5 5.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 1.4 0.6 7.3 51.2 39.4 34.2 0.2 4.4 9.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 1.2 0.8 6.9 56.8 43.2 38.2 0.2 2.9 4.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 2.9 3.6 11.3 63.6 46.3 38.1 2.5 8.4 15.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 72 28 0 100 0.8 1.5 7.6 55.8 42.7 36.3 1.0 2.9 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------