***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.10.2013.-27.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 81 19 0 100 9999.0 0.0 2.3 16.9 26.2 22.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 70 30 0 100 1.5 0.2 2.9 25.5 31.3 25.9 0.5 4.9 9.9 30 Becej 27400G00 89 11 0 100 1.1 0.9 1.9 14.8 21.3 18.1 2.8 6.2 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 96 4 0 100 0.9 1.1 2.1 14.6 23.9 21.5 2.1 8.0 15.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 95 5 0 100 1.1 0.7 0.9 6.9 14.9 10.6 3.2 7.6 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 97 3 0 100 0.3 0.3 1.1 9.2 19.4 17.1 1.2 4.3 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 1.6 1.9 3.8 32.7 34.9 30.6 1.8 4.1 8.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 93 7 0 100 1.7 0.9 1.0 8.0 14.2 10.0 4.4 9.9 17.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 96 4 0 100 0.9 0.6 1.3 10.0 16.0 13.9 3.4 7.3 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 93 7 0 100 1.7 1.1 1.1 8.0 13.8 9.7 3.6 8.3 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 92 8 0 100 1.0 0.5 0.9 7.5 15.4 10.5 2.3 5.9 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 93 7 0 100 0.5 0.2 1.1 9.5 17.8 15.0 2.1 6.1 7.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 96 4 0 100 0.8 0.1 0.5 4.1 9.9 7.2 2.7 6.4 10.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 94 6 0 100 1.9 2.7 1.6 10.8 20.1 13.1 5.7 10.9 20.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 85 15 0 100 1.0 1.0 2.3 16.1 24.9 24.7 1.5 4.7 13.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 95 5 0 100 0.4 0.3 1.0 8.5 17.8 14.6 3.0 4.3 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 0.8 1.5 4.3 39.8 39.6 32.7 1.1 2.3 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 97 3 0 100 0.6 0.5 1.3 9.2 16.4 11.1 3.3 6.8 12.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 76 24 0 100 1.4 0.6 2.7 22.7 28.1 24.1 2.0 5.8 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 94 6 0 100 0.8 0.2 1.1 7.2 11.9 8.3 4.1 7.9 12.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 95 5 0 100 0.8 0.9 1.4 10.8 18.7 17.3 2.7 5.9 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 2.2 2.9 4.8 42.3 39.9 33.8 0.8 5.1 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 86 14 0 100 1.4 0.7 2.6 19.7 24.1 20.7 3.5 9.1 20.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 96 4 0 100 0.8 0.4 1.2 8.2 15.1 9.9 5.0 8.0 15.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 90 10 0 100 0.7 0.5 1.6 11.2 19.7 17.5 1.4 3.5 8.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 98 2 0 100 0.2 0.0 0.4 3.4 8.4 7.3 2.7 8.6 12.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 80 20 0 100 0.6 0.4 2.4 17.7 26.7 23.1 1.0 2.9 11.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 91 9 0 100 0.7 0.1 2.0 15.1 23.0 22.1 1.7 7.3 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 96 4 0 100 1.7 1.1 1.2 8.0 13.8 9.4 5.8 8.6 18.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 73 27 0 100 1.4 1.0 2.9 24.4 30.5 26.2 1.2 5.3 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------