***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.10.2013.-17.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 9999.0 0.0 15.2 2.0 82.9 78.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 14.9 16.0 15.1 2.3 86.8 80.9 11.9 12.8 13.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 15.6 16.9 15.5 2.3 85.9 80.2 12.6 13.5 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 9.1 9.8 12.9 1.6 77.5 72.1 6.6 7.6 8.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 15.0 16.2 14.0 2.0 83.8 76.6 13.0 13.8 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 14.6 15.4 13.2 2.1 85.2 76.3 12.7 13.8 14.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 14.5 15.7 14.9 2.2 85.6 80.5 11.8 12.7 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 24 76 100 7.7 9.2 13.6 2.5 89.5 81.0 5.0 6.0 6.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 15.8 17.1 14.9 2.3 86.8 78.9 13.0 14.1 15.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 15.2 16.9 14.3 2.5 88.6 80.5 12.8 13.5 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 23 77 100 15.6 17.0 14.1 2.2 86.5 77.9 13.3 14.2 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 15.4 16.7 14.1 2.4 88.2 80.1 12.8 14.1 15.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 21 79 100 15.7 16.8 13.9 2.3 87.1 79.3 13.2 14.4 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 24 76 100 16.2 18.1 15.4 2.8 91.3 82.8 13.0 13.8 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 13.0 13.2 13.0 1.3 74.9 70.0 11.8 12.5 13.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 16.0 16.7 13.8 2.1 84.4 76.9 14.0 14.8 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 13.9 15.6 14.8 2.3 88.4 81.8 11.3 12.2 12.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 14.4 16.0 14.2 2.7 89.5 81.7 11.9 12.5 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 15.2 16.5 15.4 2.3 87.8 81.3 12.1 13.2 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 12.5 14.3 12.3 2.6 90.6 82.1 10.1 11.0 12.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 15.4 16.9 15.2 2.2 85.1 78.4 12.7 13.6 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 14.9 16.5 15.1 2.4 88.9 82.6 11.8 12.7 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 15.3 16.6 15.7 2.5 89.6 82.0 12.2 13.1 14.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 16.3 17.5 15.3 2.7 89.6 82.0 13.2 14.3 15.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 14.1 15.1 13.8 1.9 81.9 76.6 11.8 12.8 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 15.4 16.7 13.7 2.4 88.9 81.6 12.6 13.8 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 14.7 15.9 14.6 2.0 83.1 78.1 12.5 13.3 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 13.9 14.1 13.2 1.5 76.1 70.9 11.9 13.0 13.4 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 11.6 13.5 13.5 2.7 90.5 82.2 9.5 10.2 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 14.6 15.9 15.2 2.2 85.7 80.2 11.9 12.8 13.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------