***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.11.2013.-17.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 0.0 10.6 0.4 54.6 52.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 7.6 10.1 10.5 0.5 54.5 53.5 6.5 10.0 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 8.7 12.0 10.8 0.4 54.9 52.6 7.8 11.6 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 6.7 6.2 8.8 0.1 53.3 51.6 4.1 6.0 6.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 9.0 12.0 9.3 0.2 52.4 51.6 10.4 11.7 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 12.0 11.9 8.6 0.2 54.0 51.9 10.2 11.4 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 10.6 10.2 10.4 0.5 54.5 53.7 6.9 9.8 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 2.0 4.4 8.5 0.1 49.7 51.7 3.1 4.4 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 9.3 12.5 9.9 0.3 52.5 51.9 9.6 12.0 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 8.8 11.4 9.2 0.2 50.1 51.7 9.7 11.4 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 9.1 11.7 9.2 0.2 51.5 51.8 10.9 11.7 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 9.2 11.8 9.1 0.2 51.2 52.2 10.3 11.8 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 9.5 12.2 9.0 0.3 53.3 52.3 10.8 11.9 13.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 9.0 12.7 10.2 0.5 55.8 53.2 8.5 11.9 13.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 9.3 9.2 8.9 0.2 54.9 52.7 7.6 8.9 9.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 9.7 12.3 9.1 0.2 52.6 52.2 11.7 12.0 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 10.5 9.8 10.2 0.6 53.5 53.9 6.7 9.7 11.8 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 8.4 10.9 8.9 0.2 49.7 51.7 8.2 10.9 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 8.2 11.6 10.7 0.6 55.9 53.5 6.8 10.9 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 6.2 9.0 7.0 0.0 49.0 51.0 7.4 9.0 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 9.1 11.8 10.4 0.3 53.2 51.9 8.8 11.7 13.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 7.8 11.0 10.4 0.6 54.8 54.1 6.8 10.4 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 8.2 11.4 10.9 0.6 57.6 53.6 7.0 10.7 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 9.8 13.1 10.1 0.4 52.8 52.5 9.1 12.6 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 10.9 10.3 9.2 0.3 54.2 52.0 8.5 10.2 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 11.9 11.6 8.9 0.4 51.7 53.6 9.3 11.5 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 8.9 11.6 9.9 0.4 55.8 52.4 8.4 11.2 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 10.2 9.7 9.0 0.1 53.2 51.8 8.7 9.5 10.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 5.3 8.2 8.2 0.2 49.3 51.9 6.9 8.2 9.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 7.9 10.7 10.6 0.5 54.4 53.3 7.1 10.1 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------