***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.10.2013.-03.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 9999.0 0.0 16.6 2.4 79.3 75.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 15.6 17.3 16.6 2.7 83.0 78.1 13.0 14.3 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 18.2 19.4 17.0 2.7 83.8 77.4 12.9 15.6 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 11.7 11.8 14.3 1.7 66.7 66.6 6.9 9.6 11.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 17.7 18.5 15.3 2.3 74.4 72.5 13.5 14.7 16.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 21 79 100 17.6 18.4 14.6 2.7 79.0 75.2 13.7 14.9 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 15.5 16.2 16.4 2.6 82.1 77.9 12.7 14.0 14.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 9.6 11.2 15.1 3.0 85.0 78.6 6.4 7.7 8.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 18.4 19.6 16.2 2.7 79.1 75.5 13.2 15.4 16.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 18.2 19.8 15.7 3.0 84.0 77.6 13.1 14.8 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 18.2 19.5 15.5 2.6 78.2 74.8 13.5 15.2 17.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 18.1 19.9 15.6 2.9 83.2 77.6 13.3 15.4 16.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 18 82 100 18.6 19.5 15.3 2.8 81.7 77.6 13.9 15.4 16.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 23 77 100 19.0 21.0 16.8 3.2 87.3 79.7 11.7 16.6 17.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 15.9 15.8 13.9 1.3 65.5 62.8 13.0 14.6 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 18.9 20.1 15.2 2.5 77.7 74.2 14.8 15.7 17.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 14.7 16.0 16.3 2.7 83.4 78.6 12.2 13.3 14.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 16.6 19.6 15.7 3.3 87.9 79.7 12.1 13.3 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 16.4 17.7 16.8 2.8 84.1 78.5 12.4 14.6 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 18 82 100 15.2 17.0 13.9 3.3 86.5 80.0 10.7 12.4 13.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 17.6 18.5 16.5 2.5 76.8 74.8 12.9 15.5 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 16.0 17.8 16.5 2.9 84.6 79.2 12.3 14.3 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 16.9 18.9 17.1 3.0 87.0 79.1 12.1 15.0 16.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 18.7 20.9 16.7 3.1 87.3 79.4 12.6 15.8 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 15.7 16.1 15.2 2.2 75.4 73.0 13.1 14.0 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 12 88 100 17.9 19.7 15.3 3.0 86.3 80.7 13.4 15.4 16.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 17.5 18.3 16.0 2.4 79.5 75.9 13.2 14.6 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 17.0 17.3 14.3 1.5 67.4 64.9 12.7 15.5 17.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 20 80 100 14.5 17.0 15.1 3.3 87.2 80.0 9.4 12.1 13.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 15.6 17.2 16.7 2.6 82.6 77.6 12.9 14.1 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------