***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.10.2013.-17.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 9999.0 0.0 7.7 1.6 80.6 74.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 16 84 100 5.4 5.9 7.6 1.9 88.0 80.5 2.9 3.6 4.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 6.9 7.7 7.4 1.6 82.9 77.8 5.0 5.4 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 1.8 2.4 5.1 1.3 78.6 72.6 -0.2 0.6 1.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 4.0 4.4 5.4 1.3 77.4 72.4 2.4 2.9 3.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 3.3 3.1 3.4 1.0 69.5 68.0 1.8 2.5 2.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 18 82 100 5.0 6.0 7.6 1.9 87.4 79.4 3.0 3.5 4.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 -0.1 0.4 4.2 1.3 78.1 72.3 -1.9 -1.1 0.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 5.2 5.8 6.0 1.3 77.2 71.9 3.5 3.8 4.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 4.5 5.0 4.9 1.4 79.1 72.6 3.2 3.5 4.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 4.0 4.5 5.0 1.2 77.5 71.0 2.6 3.1 4.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 3.3 3.8 4.6 1.1 74.9 69.8 1.8 2.4 3.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 43 57 100 3.5 3.2 4.0 0.9 66.7 65.9 2.3 2.7 3.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 22 78 100 5.4 6.0 6.3 1.7 83.9 78.7 3.5 4.2 5.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 4.2 4.2 5.4 1.1 72.9 70.4 2.9 3.6 4.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 5.0 5.0 4.4 1.0 71.7 68.4 3.4 4.0 4.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 17 83 100 5.1 5.6 7.6 2.1 89.3 82.1 3.2 3.8 4.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 3.0 3.3 4.4 1.4 77.4 73.2 1.9 2.2 2.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 16 84 100 5.1 6.0 7.5 1.8 87.6 80.4 3.2 3.5 4.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 0.8 0.9 3.1 1.3 73.8 71.4 -0.9 -0.3 0.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 4.8 5.5 7.0 1.4 79.0 73.5 3.0 3.4 4.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 4.5 5.3 7.5 2.1 90.0 82.2 2.6 3.1 4.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 19 81 100 4.9 5.5 7.2 1.7 85.0 79.8 3.1 3.5 4.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 4.4 5.1 5.9 1.6 81.1 76.7 2.9 3.2 3.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 26 74 100 4.7 5.2 6.3 1.4 79.5 74.3 3.6 3.7 4.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 4.0 4.0 4.4 1.2 73.1 71.4 2.6 3.2 3.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 5.4 6.3 7.0 1.5 79.7 74.6 3.4 3.7 5.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 2.8 3.1 5.1 1.2 74.5 70.8 1.4 2.1 3.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 3.1 3.6 3.9 1.3 75.5 72.1 1.2 2.0 3.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 18 82 100 5.6 6.2 7.6 1.8 86.2 78.9 3.3 3.9 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------