***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.11.2013.-10.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 9999.0 0.0 6.7 0.8 59.4 58.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 3.6 4.1 6.3 1.0 59.1 61.0 1.8 2.9 4.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 5.8 6.2 6.4 1.0 63.4 61.8 4.2 5.3 6.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 0.8 1.3 4.1 0.7 60.1 60.1 -1.0 0.3 1.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 4.5 3.5 4.5 0.8 61.3 60.7 1.0 2.7 4.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 2.9 2.8 2.5 0.5 53.2 56.9 0.7 2.6 3.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 3.6 3.2 6.3 0.9 56.3 60.0 2.1 3.0 4.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 0.3 -0.6 3.4 0.7 59.2 59.7 -3.2 -0.9 -0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 5.6 4.2 5.2 0.9 62.4 60.8 2.4 3.7 4.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 5.1 4.1 4.0 0.8 61.4 60.1 1.9 3.2 4.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 4.7 3.8 4.2 0.8 60.4 61.4 1.4 2.9 4.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 3.6 2.7 3.8 0.7 58.0 59.5 0.6 2.1 2.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 2.8 2.8 3.2 0.5 55.7 57.3 1.0 2.0 3.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 5.5 5.0 5.2 1.0 64.6 61.6 2.9 3.9 5.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 3.7 3.3 4.4 0.7 61.1 59.3 1.5 3.0 3.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 5.3 4.3 3.6 0.7 59.3 59.3 2.3 3.6 4.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 3.8 3.6 6.1 1.0 58.3 60.5 1.8 3.4 3.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 2.4 2.4 3.6 0.8 59.9 59.0 0.8 1.8 2.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 4.1 4.7 6.3 1.1 62.4 62.2 2.0 3.5 4.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 -0.4 -1.0 2.3 0.6 54.8 56.7 -2.1 -1.3 0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 4.0 3.6 6.0 0.9 61.7 60.2 1.6 3.3 4.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 4.2 3.7 6.1 1.1 63.6 61.7 1.7 2.5 3.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 4.9 4.9 6.2 1.2 66.3 63.5 2.1 3.1 4.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 4.4 3.5 5.0 1.0 64.0 61.7 1.9 2.9 3.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 3.8 4.1 5.1 0.8 60.0 59.2 1.7 3.0 4.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 3.1 3.2 3.3 0.5 54.1 56.5 1.5 2.6 4.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 4.0 3.6 5.9 0.8 58.7 58.3 1.6 3.3 4.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 2.0 2.8 4.2 0.7 61.1 59.9 0.3 1.2 2.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 1.6 2.5 3.1 0.7 59.2 58.1 -0.1 0.9 2.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 4.0 4.2 6.4 1.0 59.2 60.9 2.1 3.3 4.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------