***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.10.2013.-03.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 9999.0 0.0 8.8 1.8 73.8 69.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 6.1 6.8 8.7 2.0 79.8 74.0 2.7 4.2 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 8.0 8.6 8.5 1.9 76.6 71.4 5.6 6.6 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 3.8 3.3 6.1 1.3 67.3 65.5 0.6 1.7 3.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 4.5 4.4 6.4 1.5 66.8 66.3 1.8 3.1 4.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 44 56 100 3.5 3.5 4.5 1.2 64.5 64.1 1.4 2.2 3.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 5.6 6.0 8.6 2.0 76.8 72.7 2.8 4.4 5.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 0.7 1.0 5.3 1.6 70.0 68.0 -0.9 0.0 0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 5.8 6.0 7.1 1.6 69.8 67.4 3.2 4.5 5.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 5.6 5.7 5.9 1.6 70.6 67.3 2.6 4.1 5.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 4.9 4.6 6.0 1.4 66.9 66.0 2.6 3.5 4.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 43 57 100 4.5 3.6 5.5 1.3 64.8 65.5 1.3 2.6 3.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 4.7 3.0 5.0 1.1 60.9 63.2 1.9 2.6 3.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 6.4 7.0 7.3 2.1 79.4 74.0 3.8 5.2 5.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 6.3 5.8 6.3 1.2 66.5 65.0 3.4 4.6 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 43 57 100 5.5 4.4 5.3 1.2 63.1 64.1 3.0 4.0 4.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 5.8 6.5 8.7 2.2 80.8 75.5 2.9 4.6 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 4.2 4.6 5.6 1.8 74.5 69.5 1.1 2.5 4.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 6.2 7.0 8.6 2.0 79.5 74.0 3.3 4.4 5.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 1.0 1.6 4.6 2.0 75.7 72.4 -1.2 -0.4 0.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 5.6 5.8 8.0 1.7 72.0 68.3 2.8 4.3 5.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 5.5 6.4 8.6 2.2 80.8 75.9 2.6 4.0 4.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 6.0 6.5 8.3 2.0 77.5 73.8 3.1 4.6 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 5.6 5.4 7.0 1.9 75.3 71.4 2.5 4.3 4.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 5.9 5.8 7.2 1.6 72.8 68.3 2.0 5.0 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 43 57 100 4.6 4.3 5.2 1.2 64.5 64.3 1.9 3.0 4.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 6.2 6.7 8.0 1.7 74.1 68.9 2.8 4.4 5.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 4.3 3.5 6.0 1.2 66.6 64.9 2.0 2.8 3.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 4.4 5.1 5.3 2.0 75.6 71.5 1.2 2.6 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 6.4 7.1 8.7 2.0 79.1 72.7 3.6 4.3 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------