***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.10.2013.-27.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 12 88 100 9999.0 0.0 10.8 3.0 85.2 84.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 1 99 100 8.4 10.3 11.2 3.8 95.0 92.6 4.0 5.6 7.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 4 96 100 10.0 11.3 10.5 3.0 87.6 86.6 5.2 7.2 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 18 82 100 4.7 6.8 7.9 2.6 84.7 82.0 0.5 1.8 3.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 17 83 100 6.9 7.9 8.4 2.5 83.2 80.6 3.8 4.7 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 19 81 100 6.3 6.1 5.6 1.8 73.9 73.2 3.3 4.2 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 6 94 100 7.7 9.9 11.3 3.9 96.6 92.0 3.8 5.7 7.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 12 88 100 2.8 3.6 6.8 2.4 81.5 81.0 -1.3 0.5 1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 16 84 100 8.5 9.1 8.5 2.3 81.1 78.8 4.3 5.7 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 11 89 100 7.4 8.2 7.7 2.5 83.8 82.1 4.0 5.2 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 6.8 7.2 7.5 2.0 78.0 75.4 3.7 5.5 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 6.3 6.8 7.0 2.0 76.0 75.8 2.8 4.0 6.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 6.4 6.5 6.4 1.6 70.0 68.9 3.7 5.6 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 2 98 100 8.4 9.4 9.6 3.3 88.3 88.0 4.4 6.0 7.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 19 81 100 6.1 6.5 8.1 1.9 80.2 77.3 4.0 4.8 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 7.7 8.1 6.9 1.8 74.7 73.5 4.7 6.0 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 7.9 10.6 11.6 4.5 99.0 94.5 3.8 5.7 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 7 93 100 6.9 7.6 7.0 2.6 84.7 82.3 3.3 4.2 5.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 8.4 9.9 10.9 3.5 92.5 91.3 3.8 5.8 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 14 86 100 3.7 4.1 5.2 2.2 80.6 79.3 -0.2 2.2 3.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 12 88 100 7.8 8.7 9.9 2.6 83.3 82.0 4.0 5.6 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 7.4 9.6 11.5 4.2 96.7 94.5 2.9 5.4 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 1 99 100 8.0 8.9 10.3 3.1 88.7 88.9 3.7 5.1 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 3 97 100 7.8 8.0 8.8 2.8 86.1 85.3 3.7 5.0 6.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 15 85 100 7.9 8.6 9.7 2.8 83.1 82.9 4.3 5.6 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 17 83 100 6.8 7.2 7.4 2.6 82.6 81.2 4.4 5.2 6.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 14 86 100 8.6 10.0 10.2 3.0 84.5 83.5 4.0 5.7 8.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 18 82 100 5.5 6.0 7.8 2.2 81.1 78.7 3.5 4.0 4.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 18 82 100 5.8 6.5 6.0 2.2 79.3 77.7 1.2 2.9 6.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 5 95 100 8.5 10.3 11.1 3.5 92.0 90.5 3.9 6.1 7.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------