***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.11.2014.-16.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 3.7 8.1 7.2 62.5 50.6 37.6 2.2 8.1 12.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 4.0 7.4 6.6 62.4 47.9 38.0 3.2 8.6 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 4.0 8.9 7.8 67.7 51.0 40.2 3.9 8.2 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 4.9 10.8 9.0 63.3 48.7 39.4 4.5 11.0 15.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 5.1 14.0 9.3 68.7 52.6 42.1 4.5 13.2 19.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 4.3 10.5 10.2 72.8 53.5 44.7 4.8 9.0 15.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 3.4 6.4 6.5 62.0 45.8 36.6 4.6 8.5 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 7.9 15.6 9.2 65.8 49.4 41.9 9.2 15.9 20.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 5.7 12.0 9.6 73.1 52.0 43.1 2.8 11.8 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 5.9 12.5 9.8 70.6 50.4 42.9 4.0 11.9 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 5.2 13.5 8.7 66.9 50.8 42.8 4.3 13.1 17.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 4.7 10.2 8.0 62.8 48.5 41.4 4.1 11.4 19.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 4.5 8.4 9.1 66.9 46.1 42.6 6.2 8.8 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 6.8 12.9 9.8 72.8 49.6 43.3 5.0 13.3 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 3.4 8.1 8.7 59.3 49.9 37.9 1.4 8.1 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 5.1 10.0 8.9 67.2 49.8 43.0 4.0 10.1 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 3.8 6.0 6.4 64.8 45.7 36.5 3.6 8.5 16.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 12.0 7.9 10.7 73.0 48.4 43.4 4.2 8.3 16.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 5.0 8.3 6.9 63.6 48.9 39.4 3.0 9.1 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 8.3 11.0 11.9 67.4 44.8 40.4 4.6 15.0 22.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 12.6 11.0 8.5 69.2 52.3 41.7 2.9 10.0 18.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 4.2 6.5 6.8 64.5 45.6 37.9 2.4 9.0 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 4.0 8.7 7.7 66.4 50.8 41.0 4.2 8.2 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 13.1 11.1 9.8 74.2 50.7 43.5 4.1 11.1 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 3.8 5.3 8.3 61.7 47.5 38.5 2.5 8.1 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 5.6 11.3 8.6 65.0 46.0 40.8 6.6 12.1 17.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 3.1 6.2 7.7 60.4 47.4 37.4 3.4 7.1 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 3.2 8.3 9.0 63.5 51.4 40.3 2.7 7.8 13.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 20.0 14.2 10.8 69.3 48.0 41.7 11.0 14.9 22.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 4.8 10.7 6.8 62.7 50.0 38.2 3.1 10.7 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------