***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.11.2014.-09.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 11.1 9.4 9.9 81.3 53.9 46.2 5.9 8.7 13.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 3.7 11.2 10.8 91.3 57.1 48.2 2.2 9.2 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 4.3 11.3 10.1 84.7 58.3 46.9 3.7 9.6 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 2.8 10.6 11.7 87.8 55.8 47.4 1.7 6.2 16.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 3.3 8.7 11.9 92.0 57.9 48.8 1.4 6.8 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 8.8 7.2 12.5 84.8 53.7 46.3 1.0 5.8 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 3.4 9.8 11.0 89.9 58.2 48.6 1.2 7.7 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 14.4 15.9 12.9 92.5 58.1 49.0 3.4 9.2 25.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 8.2 7.1 12.0 91.2 55.7 50.4 1.4 5.8 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 12.2 14.3 12.9 91.6 58.0 49.0 2.2 9.7 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 3.6 10.3 11.7 93.8 60.7 48.7 1.6 7.3 12.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 3.8 11.9 11.3 92.1 60.1 48.8 3.4 7.8 14.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 2.1 12.2 11.7 87.8 57.7 47.8 2.3 4.5 18.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 7.7 17.6 13.3 92.0 58.2 48.4 7.6 14.9 19.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 1.3 4.2 11.3 78.7 53.1 44.6 1.0 2.8 11.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 3.5 12.4 11.4 89.3 57.9 47.3 0.9 7.1 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 4.2 13.9 12.0 100.5 64.4 50.9 1.9 9.4 14.6 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 5.7 11.6 13.9 89.6 55.6 48.0 3.4 11.0 20.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 3.9 14.6 10.6 92.1 58.8 48.3 2.4 9.3 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 4.7 12.7 17.7 92.8 57.2 50.1 4.5 8.9 17.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 8.0 7.8 10.8 87.3 54.4 49.4 1.4 6.2 9.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 5.6 16.6 12.7 107.8 66.7 53.0 1.6 12.0 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 4.5 14.8 10.7 91.1 59.8 47.7 4.5 9.3 17.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 4.5 11.2 12.4 88.6 56.1 47.3 3.6 8.8 14.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 8.7 6.4 11.6 85.5 55.9 48.3 1.2 5.8 9.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 7.8 8.2 12.4 91.9 60.0 50.7 1.5 5.8 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 10.9 8.7 11.2 83.4 56.3 47.2 2.3 8.6 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 1.0 4.4 11.2 82.2 54.5 45.4 0.9 2.3 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 9.9 19.9 14.9 87.7 55.1 47.8 7.1 19.3 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 2.9 11.1 10.4 87.4 55.2 47.3 2.0 7.4 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------