***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.10.2014.-02.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 2.6 5.4 7.8 64.8 52.2 42.1 0.6 5.3 11.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 1.1 3.0 8.1 65.9 51.1 42.0 0.7 2.5 7.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 7.8 5.3 8.4 69.8 50.3 43.4 1.3 5.3 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 3.0 7.2 8.2 68.2 53.4 42.3 1.9 6.4 10.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 2.0 4.7 8.2 71.9 52.4 42.2 2.1 4.6 9.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 4.1 3.4 9.9 81.7 58.1 45.4 1.1 2.7 4.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 5.4 4.0 8.4 67.8 51.9 41.7 0.5 3.8 6.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 9.1 7.6 10.4 96.6 57.8 49.3 1.6 6.3 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 7.1 7.2 9.1 79.7 55.4 46.0 1.4 5.5 8.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 8.2 8.9 10.3 89.2 56.4 47.2 3.7 6.2 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 6.3 6.6 8.6 83.7 57.5 46.5 1.3 5.2 8.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 5.9 5.1 9.0 95.1 59.0 49.9 1.7 3.9 6.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 5.9 5.9 9.4 86.7 55.8 45.6 1.6 4.3 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.4 8.8 10.6 73.7 48.4 43.3 3.1 9.9 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 1.1 2.4 7.9 60.6 50.8 42.4 0.7 2.3 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 5.2 4.3 8.9 84.3 56.8 46.8 0.6 3.3 6.6 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 1.2 2.9 7.6 62.9 52.4 37.4 0.6 2.8 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 8.5 8.8 12.1 94.1 57.4 47.7 1.9 6.0 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 1.7 3.7 8.3 67.1 50.7 43.4 1.2 3.6 7.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 2.1 5.7 15.7 103.9 60.9 49.4 3.1 4.6 7.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 7.4 7.9 8.5 74.9 55.2 44.9 0.9 6.3 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 1.2 2.9 7.8 62.4 49.7 38.8 1.8 2.9 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 1.9 3.9 8.9 69.8 50.6 43.7 1.9 3.8 8.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 10.0 9.0 10.6 83.1 52.9 46.3 2.2 7.5 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 2.1 4.8 9.6 72.6 52.8 43.7 1.6 4.4 9.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 1.3 3.7 8.8 83.5 56.1 45.6 1.1 2.8 4.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 1.5 5.1 9.7 73.4 54.9 45.0 0.8 3.1 8.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 1.6 4.0 7.7 65.2 52.1 41.8 1.0 3.9 6.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 5.2 14.3 13.7 99.5 58.3 49.2 3.5 10.2 18.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 1.5 3.4 8.4 67.9 51.1 43.8 0.6 3.3 5.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------