***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.10.2014.-26.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 9.3 10.2 11.7 105.5 62.6 56.3 2.5 4.9 11.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 89 11 100 4.5 9.6 12.8 112.0 62.8 61.2 0.1 3.3 10.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 9.7 12.8 11.9 109.2 65.0 58.2 2.0 6.4 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 10.1 10.8 9.9 91.0 59.7 50.5 2.3 7.2 17.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 10.2 10.0 11.4 111.1 65.6 56.8 2.4 6.8 10.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 6.1 12.0 11.5 129.2 71.7 55.8 0.8 4.3 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 88 12 100 5.2 8.0 12.4 106.2 62.1 59.4 0.3 3.9 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 11.7 23.4 13.0 133.1 73.9 61.2 4.6 8.3 16.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 8.0 8.9 12.1 115.0 66.7 59.6 3.0 6.0 8.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 10.9 11.3 13.4 127.9 69.8 61.3 3.8 6.3 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 6.9 12.6 11.3 126.4 71.0 59.1 2.1 3.7 10.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 7.1 10.6 11.5 136.8 75.3 60.9 1.6 5.7 9.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 7.6 15.0 11.9 136.0 73.4 58.4 2.0 5.2 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 13.9 23.3 14.7 117.0 70.3 61.9 4.5 10.4 20.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 5.1 6.9 8.6 77.2 58.4 47.1 1.0 2.5 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 6.6 13.6 10.7 123.0 69.7 56.2 1.7 3.8 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 89 11 100 3.7 9.7 13.0 103.9 62.6 58.2 0.7 2.1 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 9.7 10.5 14.9 127.6 71.3 62.6 3.9 6.2 10.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 88 12 100 7.5 14.9 13.1 114.3 64.1 61.4 1.8 5.4 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 11.5 13.9 14.8 112.9 68.7 56.8 4.2 8.6 12.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 10.1 10.0 12.0 113.0 64.8 59.2 2.2 7.6 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 89 11 100 5.5 13.1 14.1 109.7 64.9 59.1 0.8 3.9 13.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 11.5 19.3 13.2 113.5 68.4 60.9 1.4 9.3 18.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 14.5 17.8 14.3 123.8 71.5 62.3 1.1 6.4 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 8.1 6.4 12.6 106.9 62.8 57.2 1.3 4.5 8.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 4.1 16.7 10.7 120.9 70.3 54.8 2.2 8.8 13.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 7.5 8.5 13.2 110.0 63.1 58.0 0.7 3.8 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 7.2 8.5 9.2 92.1 60.9 48.5 0.7 5.0 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 12.6 21.6 15.3 123.1 71.1 61.9 6.3 8.2 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 87 13 100 6.9 11.6 12.4 110.6 62.6 60.6 0.9 5.5 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------