***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.11.2014.-16.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 12.2 11.0 9.6 -0.5 45.0 45.5 9.1 11.6 12.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 10.6 8.8 9.6 -0.3 45.8 47.1 7.7 9.9 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 9.2 11.4 9.7 -0.4 44.9 46.0 9.1 11.7 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 3.8 5.4 7.7 -0.5 42.5 46.2 3.9 6.5 7.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 9.6 11.1 8.1 -0.5 42.5 45.7 9.7 11.8 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 9.1 10.6 7.1 -0.9 39.2 43.6 9.4 11.7 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 10.7 8.5 9.5 -0.3 44.7 47.0 7.7 10.1 12.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 2.7 4.2 7.3 -0.5 42.2 46.1 3.6 4.4 5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 10.1 11.9 8.7 -0.5 42.1 45.7 10.4 12.4 14.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 9.5 10.1 8.0 -0.5 42.1 46.2 9.7 11.7 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 9.9 11.0 7.9 -0.6 43.4 45.4 10.1 12.3 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 9.6 10.8 7.7 -0.6 41.6 45.0 9.7 11.9 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 10.1 10.7 7.4 -0.8 40.2 43.7 10.3 12.0 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.5 10.1 9.2 -0.2 43.5 47.8 9.7 11.4 14.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 8.0 8.7 8.0 -0.4 44.9 47.1 7.7 9.3 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 10.5 11.6 7.6 -0.7 41.6 44.3 11.1 12.7 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 10.3 8.7 9.4 -0.2 46.6 48.6 7.2 9.6 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 8.7 8.7 7.8 -0.4 41.7 47.0 8.4 10.5 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 11.4 10.4 9.7 -0.3 45.2 47.1 8.4 10.7 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 9.8 8.7 6.2 -0.3 41.4 47.3 7.0 9.2 11.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 9.6 11.3 9.2 -0.5 43.3 45.6 9.4 11.6 13.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 11.0 10.1 9.6 -0.1 47.0 49.1 8.0 10.4 12.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 8.2 9.8 9.8 -0.3 44.4 47.1 8.5 10.4 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 10.0 11.7 9.0 -0.3 42.4 47.1 10.4 12.4 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 11.5 9.6 8.2 -0.5 44.4 46.0 8.5 11.0 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 12.2 11.0 7.3 -0.8 37.4 43.5 10.2 11.8 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 12.3 10.7 9.0 -0.5 45.0 45.9 8.8 11.7 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 8.3 9.0 7.9 -0.5 43.3 46.1 8.8 9.5 10.7 29 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 6.0 7.9 7.2 -0.3 42.5 47.5 6.6 8.8 10.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 10.8 9.1 9.7 -0.4 45.3 46.4 8.2 10.0 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------