***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.11.2014.-09.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 11.1 11.2 11.2 -1.1 37.4 41.4 10.9 12.8 14.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 12.9 11.5 11.1 -1.0 39.4 41.8 11.3 12.3 13.5 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 11.7 11.7 11.3 -1.1 39.3 41.8 11.2 13.3 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 4.1 5.1 9.3 -1.2 35.3 41.3 5.1 5.6 8.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 11.2 11.1 9.8 -1.2 37.4 41.5 11.0 12.6 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 10.0 10.3 8.5 -1.7 27.2 39.8 10.8 13.1 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 10.6 11.1 11.0 -1.0 39.6 42.1 10.7 11.8 13.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 2.8 4.3 8.9 -1.4 35.0 41.2 4.2 5.7 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 13.9 11.6 10.4 -1.2 39.6 41.7 11.4 13.0 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 11.3 11.5 9.5 -1.3 37.3 41.6 11.4 12.1 14.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 11.3 11.4 9.6 -1.3 35.5 41.6 11.2 12.5 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 11.0 10.9 9.3 -1.4 31.2 40.7 10.9 12.6 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 11.0 10.6 8.9 -1.7 25.7 39.5 11.1 13.3 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 11.7 11.7 10.5 -1.1 37.1 42.2 11.4 13.5 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 10.7 11.6 9.5 -1.1 35.6 42.1 11.4 12.3 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 11.6 11.4 9.3 -1.5 31.4 40.5 11.6 13.6 15.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 12.4 11.1 10.9 -0.9 40.0 42.2 10.9 11.7 12.8 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 10.2 10.2 9.3 -1.3 35.7 41.9 10.1 11.2 12.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 10.9 11.6 11.3 -1.0 38.9 41.8 11.1 12.3 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 8.1 9.2 7.4 -1.3 35.3 41.7 8.8 10.5 11.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 11.4 11.5 10.9 -1.2 39.4 41.7 11.2 12.5 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 13.3 11.8 10.9 -1.0 38.9 41.6 10.8 12.6 13.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 11.1 11.8 11.3 -1.0 38.1 42.1 11.1 12.7 14.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 12.1 11.8 10.5 -1.1 37.1 42.2 11.5 13.8 14.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 10.7 10.6 9.8 -1.2 36.9 41.2 10.5 12.0 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 10.7 9.9 8.7 -1.7 24.6 38.3 11.3 13.0 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 11.1 10.9 10.5 -1.2 36.9 41.3 10.8 12.9 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 10.9 11.7 9.5 -1.2 35.0 41.4 11.4 12.4 13.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 7.2 7.5 8.5 -1.3 35.6 42.1 7.1 9.6 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 10.9 11.2 11.2 -1.0 39.2 41.7 10.9 12.1 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------