***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.10.2014.-02.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 15.4 15.0 14.6 0.2 51.5 51.9 12.8 14.9 16.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 15.0 14.9 14.5 0.3 53.1 52.4 13.3 14.8 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 15.6 15.6 14.8 0.3 52.7 52.2 13.2 15.0 16.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 10.4 10.1 13.0 0.4 54.9 54.1 6.9 9.9 10.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 15.4 15.3 13.5 0.4 54.2 53.2 13.6 14.7 17.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 15.6 15.2 12.5 0.2 51.1 52.1 13.4 15.1 16.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 14.5 14.3 14.4 0.3 53.4 52.4 13.2 14.2 14.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 8.2 7.8 12.7 0.3 52.7 52.4 6.9 7.8 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 15.4 15.3 14.0 0.3 53.3 52.5 13.7 14.6 17.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 15.3 14.9 13.3 0.3 52.6 52.3 13.6 14.4 16.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 15.6 15.6 13.3 0.4 54.2 53.0 14.0 14.6 17.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 15.7 15.1 13.2 0.2 52.4 51.6 13.7 14.9 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 16.3 15.8 12.8 0.0 51.2 50.7 14.1 15.6 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 16.7 16.2 14.2 0.3 50.7 51.7 13.1 16.2 17.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 15.5 15.8 13.1 0.5 56.2 55.4 13.1 15.2 16.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 16.8 16.2 13.1 0.3 52.9 52.5 15.0 16.1 17.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 13.9 14.0 14.3 0.4 55.1 53.3 12.6 13.6 14.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 14.3 13.7 13.0 0.2 50.3 51.8 12.4 13.6 16.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 15.0 15.2 14.8 0.3 53.7 52.5 12.9 14.6 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 13.7 13.2 11.3 0.3 49.3 52.5 10.4 13.2 14.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 15.2 15.5 14.4 0.3 53.8 52.5 13.8 14.6 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 15.1 14.9 14.5 0.5 55.5 53.6 13.0 14.8 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 15.5 15.5 14.9 0.3 53.7 52.4 13.1 15.1 16.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 16.4 15.9 14.1 0.3 50.9 51.9 13.5 15.7 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 15.0 14.9 13.3 0.3 52.8 53.0 12.9 14.6 15.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 16.5 15.9 12.7 -0.1 47.1 50.0 13.4 16.2 16.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 15.4 15.3 14.0 0.2 52.3 52.3 13.4 14.8 15.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 16.0 16.0 13.2 0.5 56.0 54.3 13.4 15.4 16.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 12.1 11.4 12.3 0.2 49.5 51.6 8.9 11.4 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 14.7 14.6 14.6 0.3 52.7 52.0 13.2 14.4 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------